Athletic Bilbao will be looking to continue their encouraging start to the 2021-22 La Liga campaign when they welcome Cadiz to San Mames on Friday night.
The home side have picked up 18 points from their opening 11 matches to sit eighth in the table, while Cadiz have collected nine points from their first 12 fixtures, which has left them in 18th position.
Match preview
© Reuters
Athletic, alongside Villarreal, have been the draw specialists in La Liga this season, sharing the points in six of their 11 matches, while they have also won four times and lost just once during a solid start.
A total of 18 points has left Marcelino's side in eighth position in the table, just four points behind fourth-placed Atletico Madrid, and the hosts will bring a five-match unbeaten run into Friday's contest.
Athletic travelled to division leaders Real Sociedad in the Basque derby last weekend and looked to be heading for a one-goal loss until Iker Muniain levelled the scores in second-half stoppage time.
The Lions suffered a shock 2-1 home defeat to Rayo Vallecano on September 21, but they have been largely impressive in front of their own supporters this season, holding Barcelona, in addition to beating Mallorca, Alaves and Villarreal.
Athletic suffered a 1-0 home loss to Cadiz in the corresponding clash between the two teams last season, but the Basque outfit ran out 4-0 winners when the pair last locked horns in February.
© Reuters
Cadiz, meanwhile, will enter the contest off the back of a 1-1 draw with Mallorca last weekend, and Alvaro Cervera's side needed a last-gasp Alvaro Negredo penalty to secure a share of the spoils.
The Yellow Submarine were so impressive on their return to this level last season, claiming 12th, but they have found it difficult to show their best form in the early stages of the 2021-22 campaign.
A record of one win, six draws and five defeats from 12 matches has seen Cadiz collect nine points, which has left them in 18th position in the table, just three points above basement side Getafe.
Cervera's team have actually scored 11 times in the league this season, which is far from a disastrous record, but they have shipped 19 down the other end, which is the second-worst record in the division behind Levante (23).
Cadiz will be wary of suffering from second-season syndrome in La Liga, but they were impressive in their last away league fixture at the end of October, picking up a point against Villarreal, which should stand them in good stead heading into Friday's encounter at San Mames.
- L
- D
- W
- W
- D
- D
- L
- D
- L
- L
- D
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Athletic have a relatively lengthy injury list at the moment, with Daniel Vivian, Oier Zarraga, Asier Villalibre, Aitor Paredes and Peru Nolaskoain currently on the sidelines.
Inigo Martinez will also miss out on Friday due to the red card that he picked up against Real Sociedad, so Unai Nunez is in line for a spot in the middle of the defence.
There are not expected to be any changes elsewhere, though, with Raul Garcia again joining Inaki Williams in the final third of the field, leaving Muniain and Alex Berenguer in the wide areas.
As for Cadiz, Salvi Sanchez and Jose Mari remain on the sidelines through injury, while Ivan Chapela will miss out with the hamstring problem that he picked up against Mallorca.
The visitors could also be without Fali Jimenez, who had to be substituted at the interval last time out, with Victor Chust in line to feature in the middle of the defence.
Varazdat Haroyan should also return, having missed out against Mallorca through suspension, while Chapela's absence could see Ruben Sobrino drop into a wide area, with Negredo returning in the final third of the field.
Athletic Bilbao possible starting lineup:
Simon; De Marcos, Yeray, Nunez, Lekue; Berenguer, Vencedor, D Garcia, Muniain; R Garcia, Williams
Cadiz possible starting lineup:
Ledesma; Haroyan, Cala, Chust, Espino; Sobrino, Jonsson, Alex, Perea; Negredo, Lozano
We say: Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Cadiz
Cadiz are capable of making this a difficult assignment for Athletic despite their struggles in the early stages of the campaign. Marcelino's side have been impressive this term, though, and we are expecting the Basque outfit to put another three points on the board at San Mames.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 52.32%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Cadiz had a probability of 22.38%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.08%) and 2-1 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.96%), while for a Cadiz win it was 0-1 (7.6%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.
