Since this article was published, this game has been called off due to a COVID-19 outbreak in the Torino squad. A new date for the game will be confirmed in due course.
Having ended an otherwise excellent year on a down note, Atalanta BC will be keen to get 2022 off to a winning start when they host mid-table Torino on Thursday.
Two losses from their last four games - plus ending 2021 with a goalless draw against lowly Genoa - saw La Dea exit the Champions League and slip to fourth in Serie A, so they seek better fortunes as the action resumes after the winter break.
Match preview
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Defeats to Villarreal and Roma - the former ending their participation in Europe's elite competition, the latter damaging their Scudetto dreams - brought Atalanta's first half of the season to an unsatisfactory close, particularly in the context of six straight Serie A wins beforehand.
Gian Piero Gasperini saw his side's charge towards the top of the table halted by their 4-1 thumping by the Giallorossi - barely a week after they suffered Champions League heartbreak - so a frustrating draw with his old club Genoa was not what the Bergamaschi boss had in mind to round off the year.
Nevertheless, Atalanta have still lost just three of their last 16 games all told, and such consistency has helped the regular overachievers - who have already got the better of both Napoli and Juventus this term - into a top four place amid some stiff competition.
Intriguingly, they have built that success on away soil so far, having won eight of their 10 away fixtures domestically. By contrast, the Nerazzurri have toiled without much reward back in Bergamo, and a record of just three victories from their first nine Serie A matches at the Gewiss Stadium tells its own tale.
One of La Dea's many successes on the road came in Turin, back in August, when they edged out this Thursday's opponents by virtue of a stoppage-time winner from young striker Roberto Piccoli.
To complete the double over Torino, Gasperini will require a more secure performance from his back three, which has conceded nearly two goals per game when on home turf. He has, though, overseen only two defeats against the Granata in 11 games since taking the Atalanta hotseat back in 2016, so the free-scoring home side start as favourites nonetheless.
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Much like their hosts, Torino concluded 2021 on a less productive run, having picked up just two wins from their seven most recent games in all competitions.
That streak included a disappointing Coppa Italia loss at the hands of struggling Sampdoria, and their final match just before the mid-season interval was a 1-0 loss at reigning league champions Inter.
Indeed, in a similar vein to Atalanta, it has been a season of two halves for the Granata in the first part of the campaign. Their superb home record is the third-best in the division - bettering Milan, Napoli and even city rivals Juventus - but they have accumulated a dismal five Serie A points on the road.
Only four goals and one victory in nine attempts away from home - added to their cup exit at Marassi - means that despite their improvement under Ivan Juric this term, Torino will certainly be outsiders when they step back onto the pitch in Lombardy.
The Croatian coach has undertaken the remedial work required to finally shore up Il Toro's leaky defence, but before coming face to face with his mentor Gasperini this week, will be mindful his club have conceded an average of 3.6 goals per game in their last five meetings with Atalanta.
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Team News
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Gian Piero Gasperini has not rested on his laurels after another successful year in Bergamo, managing to persuade Atalanta president Antonio Percassi to sign Sassuolo winger Jeremie Boga during the break. The Ivory Coast international is set to become the club's record purchase, but will be away at the African Nations Cup for at least the next fortnight.
Meanwhile, one of two Atalanta players in isolation following positive COVID-19 tests - the other remains unnamed - is goalkeeper Juan Musso, who will be replaced by Marco Sportiello between the posts on Thursday.
Captain Rafael Toloi returned to full training earlier this week, but is expected to only be fit enough to feature on the bench, so Juventus loanee Merih Demiral should start in the back three. Long-term injury victim Robin Gosens is nearing a comeback but remains sidelined, Remo Freuler must serve a suspension, and top scorer Duvan Zapata is set to miss out with a groin strain.
Torino have announced that four players or staff members have tested positive for COVID-19 following the break, while Simone Verdi contracted the virus last week and remains in quarantine.
Still recovering from a hamstring injury, star striker Andrea Belotti - who will most likely leave the club as a free agent in June - is also out of the reckoning this week, while Ola Aina has joined up to aid Nigeria's quest for AFCON glory.
In their absence, Antonio Sanabria should deputise up front, with Mergim Vojvoda featuring at wing-back for the visitors.
Atalanta BC possible starting lineup:
Sportiello; Djimsiti, Demiral, Palomino; Hateboer, De Roon, Koopmeiners, Pezzella; Malinovskyi, Pessina; Muriel
Torino possible starting lineup:
Milinkovic-Savic; Djidji, Bremer, Rodriguez; Singo, Lukic, Mandragora, Vojvoda; Brekalo, Praet; Sanabria
We say: Atalanta BC 2-1 Torino
Both sides will hope that they can turn over a new leaf for the new year, as Atalanta's all-out attacking has not translated to sufficient points at the Gewiss Stadium, and Torino are too often abysmal outside of Turin.
The hosts have the best chance of doing so, however, as their greater individual quality in the final third should prove decisive.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 57.14%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Torino had a probability of 19.95%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.16%) and 2-1 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.88%), while for a Torino win it was 0-1 (6.01%). The actual scoreline of 4-4 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
