Having got the new year under way in markedly different fashion, resurgent Atalanta BC meet fast-sinking Parma on Wednesday evening.
Following a 3-0 home reverse to troubled Torino, the Gialloblu slipped within a point of the bottom three, while Atalanta enjoyed a thumping home win to start 2021.
Match preview
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On Sunday, Atalanta took advantage of Sassuolo's suicidal approach to defending, as Duvan Zapata scored twice and his Colombian compatriot Luis Muriel added yet another goal from the bench to help Gian Piero Gasperini's fluent team to a 5-1 victory.
Though that striking result still leaves La Dea below Roberto De Zerbi's side in the Serie A table, it surely will not be long before roles are reversed if they can continue the recent form that has seen them knock Ajax out of the Champions League plus put a hatful of goals past close rivals Roma and Sassuolo.
Even accounting for the continued absence of once-cherished captain Papu Gomez - whose differences with Gasperini appear irresolvable and will surely depart - Atalanta have a rich array of attacking options to trouble a failing Parma defence.
The Bergamaschi have now won their last three home games on the spin - firing in twelve goals in the process - as they recover admirably from a late-autumn sticky patch to rediscover their free-flowing best.
Without the considerable influence of Gomez, Gasperini still hopes to persuade Manchester United to let young forward Amad Diallo stay at the club until the end of the season on loan before moving to Old Trafford permanently in the summer.
Even if that request falls on deaf ears, the much-vaunted tactician should have more than enough talent in hand to tame Parma, with Ruslan Malinovskyi, Josip Ilicic and the underrated Matteo Pessina all running into form.
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Still with only two league wins since coach Fabio Liverani took charge in the summer, 16th-placed Parma started their slide down the standings in early December and events took a further turn for the worse on Sunday.
Their visitors Torino were rock-bottom with just eight points accrued before the winter break. However, it took just eight minutes for the Granata to break the deadlock at Stadio Tardini and Parma never recovered, falling to a humbling three-goal defeat.
Liverani has acknowledged that, though he requires time to implement his style of play within the squad, he is also under pressure to deliver results quickly.
Despite returning to training straight after Christmas - while others had an extended break - so far the former Azzurri midfielder's ideas have yet to inspire Parma's struggling side and rumours are circulating Wednesday's game could be his last in charge.
Tellingly, no team has scored fewer goals than the Ducali in Serie A this season and the last time the club had a worse tally at this point was a decade ago.
Experienced forward Gervinho - often integral for the Gialloblu last year - has scored four goals so far but has also spent several games sidelined through injury, including Sunday's latest defeat.
His return cannot come soon enough for a goal-shy outfit that also faces Lazio, Sassuolo and Napoli in the coming weeks - with an arduous relegation battle looming on the horizon.
Atalanta BC Serie A form: LWDWDW
Atalanta BC form (all competitions): WWDWDW
Parma Serie A form: DDDLLL
Team News
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Once more, Gomez is set to be excluded by Atalanta boss Gasperini, due to a falling-out between the two men most pivotal in the club's recent rise. Matteo Pessina, who signed for less than £2m from Milan three years ago, continues to impress in the skipper's absence.
Mario Pasalic is again unavailable because of a groin injury, with influential defender Rafael Toloi (thigh strain) also a slight doubt.
Cristian Romero is suspended so Jose Luis Palomino should come into the back three, while 'supersub' Luis Muriel earns a rare start ahead of Duvan Zapata up front.
Both Parma's top scorer Gervinho and left-back Giuseppe Pezzella are struggling to be fit for the trip north.
Juraj Kucka and centre-back Yordan Osorio both picked up knocks in the Torino defeat and will be assessed again closer to kickoff, as Swiss teenager Simon Sohm is set to earn a rare start.
Roberto Inglese comes into the lineup for Andreas Cornelius at centre-forward.
Atalanta BC possible starting lineup:
Gollini; Toloi, Palomino, Djimsiti; Hateboer, De Roon, Freuler, Gosens; Pessina; Ilicic, Muriel
Parma possible starting lineup:
Sepe; Busi, Valenti, Alves, Gagliolo; Hernani, Cyprien, Kurtic, Sohm; Karamoh, Inglese
We say: Atalanta BC 2-0 Parma
Serie A's least-effective strikeforce visits one of its most potent attacks on Wednesday, with few observers expecting Parma to take anything from an intimidating match-up.
Having once more hit their straps, expect Atalanta's free-scoring squad to add further to Liverani's woes.
Top betting tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 76.01%. A draw had a probability of 14.2% and a win for Parma had a probability of 9.83%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.76%) and 3-0 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.26%), while for a Parma win it was 1-2 (2.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.
