Two of the early contenders for this season's Premier League dark horse meet at midday on Sunday as Aston Villa host Southampton.
The two sides find themselves third and seventh respectively heading into the weekend and have both earned several plaudits for the way they have started the campaign.
Match preview
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A 3-0 defeat to Leeds United last Friday was the first blot on Aston Villa's otherwise perfect copybook this campaign.
Dean Smith's side, who only survived relegation on the final day of last season, won their first four games of 2020-21, including an unforgettable 7-2 win over reigning champions Liverpool.
Sitting on 12 points from a possible 15, they are already over a third of the way to their final tally last season of 35.
Villa have conceded the fewest goals in the Premier League (five) and Emiliano Martinez's three clean sheets is the joint-highest figure in the division – along with Southampton's Alex McCarthy.
Martinez was one of a number of really smart signings that have massively improved the Midlands outfit, as well as Ross Barkley and Ollie Watkins, who already have two goals each in claret and blue.
However Villa's recent record against Southampton is not good, as they have failed to beat the Saints in their last eight attempts.
This fixture last season finished 3-1 to the South Coast side, with Danny Ings netting twice at Villa Park.
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Ings turned provider last weekend as he set up both goals, scored by James Ward-Prowse and Che Adams, in an impressive 2-0 win over league leaders Everton.
It was the Toffees' first defeat of the season and made it four games unbeaten for Southampton after they lost their opening two matches.
The Saints have 10 points from a possible 18 - their best return at this stage since the 2014-15 season.
The win against Everton marked a year to the day since their 9-0 defeat at home to Leicester City – a reminder of just how much they have progressed in the last 12 months.
Ralph Hasenhuttl should take an awful lot of credit, as should the club's owners for sticking with the Austrian when many would have sacked him.
European football is now a realistic ambition for Southampton supporters and they could move into the top four with victory on Sunday.
Aston Villa Premier League form: WWWWL
Aston Villa form (all competitions): WWLWWL
Southampton Premier League form: LLWWDW
Southampton form (all competitions): LLWWDW
Team News
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Dean Smith has only changed his starting XI once all season – when Ross Barkley replaced Conor Hourihane – and the defeat to Leeds is unlikely to result in any rash selection decisions.
If he does make a switch, Trezeguet's position on the right wing seems the most in danger with Bertrand Traore ready and waiting on the bench.
Loanee Theo Walcott is available again for Southampton after being ineligible to feature against parent club Everton last weekend.
However Ralph Hasenhuttl is likely to keep the same side that beat the Toffees, leaving Walcott on the bench along with Shane Long and big-money signing Ibrahima Diallo.
Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Mings, Targett; McGinn, Luiz; Trezeguet, Barkley, Grealish; Watkins
Southampton possible starting lineup:
McCarthy; Walker-Peters, Bednarek, Vestergaard, Bertrand; Armstrong, Ward-Prowse, Romeu, Redmond; Adams, Ings
We say: Aston Villa 1-1 Southampton
A really interesting match awaits and both sides will feel that they are capable of coming away with victory. Aston Villa will want to prove that defeat to Leeds was a one off, while Southampton are coming into their own. It's too tight to call, so we're going for a draw.
Top betting tip
Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:dataVideo prediction
Watch the Sports Mole Football Shorts prediction for this game below:
Olly Allen
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 42.22%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 32.07% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.87%) and 0-2 (7.19%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-0 (8.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.
