Aston Villa Women do not have much to play for in the final few games of the Women's Super League season, but on Sunday they host Manchester United Women, who have a lot at stake in their final three matches.
Marc Skinner's side currently sit third but only three points ahead of rivals Manchester City, who have a game in hand on the Red Devils, suggesting that every match is a must-win outing for Man United from here on in.
Match preview
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Carla Ward's team occupy ninth place in the table after 19 rounds of fixtures, and they will want to better their 10th-placed finish from last year, having already collected more points this time around.
Villa ended a four-game winless run last time out with an impressive 1-0 victory at The Hive stadium against Tottenham Hotspur, courtesy of a late strike from Ramona Petzelberger.
The visitors proved to be more efficient in front of goal on that day, scoring with their only shot on target, but having netted just 13 goals this season, winning a match by a small 1-0 margin comes as no surprise.
Perhaps more of a surprise is the fact that Villa have been much better on their travels this year than they have been so at home, winning just once on their own patch compared to five times on the road.
Sunday presents an opportunity to improve their home record slightly, but overall that will still be something that Ward will have to improve with her team next year if they are to challenge further up the table.
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Man United enter this fixture in good form, having put together a five-game unbeaten run, most recently securing a 1-0 win against Brighton & Hove Albion earlier this month.
Leah Galton netted her seventh goal of the campaign to ensure that the hosts picked up a vital three points, but as their goal difference is only three better than Man City's goal difference, Skinner would have liked to see his side put away a few more of their chances.
Since Man United's first season in the top flight, which came during the 2019-20 campaign, the Red Devils have established themselves as a top team in the division, but the next step will be to qualify for the Champions League and after holding onto third spot for so long this year, they will not want to give that up to their rivals in the final few matches.
The visitors on Sunday will create a lot of chances in front of goal, and are expected to get on the scoresheet more than once, but it will be important that Man United do not allow Villa to take a lead to defend.
Considering the result in the reverse fixture, it is unlikely that Villa will be able to cause Man United any problems, after the Red Devils secured a 5-0 win in December, thanks to goals from Katie Zelem, Lucy Staniforth, Martha Thomas and a brace from Ella Toone.
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Team News
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Centre-back Rachel Corsie, who arrived at Aston Villa from Kansas City in January, has come into the side in place of Anna Patten in recent weeks, and the former will continue alongside Anita Asante in the heart of defence.
Ruesha Littlejohn replaced Jill Scott in the starting 11 last time out, and the Irish international is expected to continue in midfield with Remi Allen and Laura Blindkilde.
Alisha Lehmann, Emily Gielnik and Petzelberger are certain to make up the front three, but Chloe Arthur could also offer an attacking threat off the bench.
Millie Turner remains sidelined for Man United, and in recent weeks midfielder Hayley Ladd has dropped into the heart of defence as Diane Caldwell has dropped out of the side.
Jackie Groenen and Zelem will continue as a midfield pairing, with Toone in front of them operating in a number 10 role, with the visitors possessing a variety of attacking options as well.
Alessia Russo is currently the team's top goalscorer having netted nine WSL goals, and she will start on the left wing with Galton on the opposite side also looking to provide assists.
Aston Villa Women possible starting lineup:
Hampton; Pacheco, Asante, Corsie, Mayling; Allen, Littlejohn, Blindkilde; Petzelberger, Gielnik, Lehmann
Manchester United Women possible starting lineup:
Earps; Blundell, Thorisdottir, Ladd, Batlle; Zelem, Groenen; Russo, Toone, Galton; Thomas
We say: Aston Villa Women 0-2 Manchester United Women
With a Champions League qualification spot up for grabs, Man United are certain to be well motivated for this encounter and their remaining games of the campaign, while Villa showed that they are still determined to pick up points with their away win last time out.
However, Villa have been better on their travels than they have been so on their own patch this year, which is something that Man United need to take full advantage of and they are favourites to do so.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United Women win with a probability of 78.25%. A draw had a probability of 14.5% and a win for Aston Villa Women had a probability of 7.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United Women win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (11.47%) and 0-1 (11.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.89%), while for an Aston Villa Women win it was 1-0 (2.77%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.
