As Arsenal pursue Real Madrid superstar Vinicius Junior, Sports Mole's Site Coordinator Ben Knapton discusses the finances surrounding a potential deal.
Ben Knapton, Site Coordinator: "Real Madrid do not have much power in negotiations"
It is a really difficult one because of that contract situation. Real Madrid do not have that much power in negotiations, as they could lose him for nothing in 2027.
He is 26, in the prime of his career, and could still get even better. You look at what Mo Salah did at 33, and Vinicius is in that same bracket of generational talents.
If it is clear he will not sign a new deal, Real Madrid would have to relent on their stance slightly. While both sides still want to find an agreement, Real can place a massive price tag on his head to warn off any suitors.
A player with 22 goals and 14 assists in all competitions last season, then four goals and one assist at the World Cup for Brazil, would elevate the Arsenal attack to a level not seen for years.
There would be no problem with Arsenal paying over £100m for that, even if he is in the last 12 months of his deal. I was looking at the most expensive transfer fees paid for players in the last year of their contract.
The record is Eden Hazard, at around £90m to Real Madrid, and then Bayern Munich paid £80m for Harry Kane going into the last year of his Spurs deal.
When you have generational talents, you push the contract situation to one side and pay what the player is worth to the team. The wages, though, could be a whole other story.
Arsenal’s current highest paid player is Bukayo Saka on £300,000 a week. They are willing to go up to £400,000 a week for Vinicius, which would smash their wage structure.
But some reports suggest he is demanding around €30m a year from Real Madrid, equating to roughly £450,000-£500,000 a week, which may require compromise from both parties.
There is perhaps a 5% chance this actually happens. But if it did, Arsenal have crunched the numbers and think it is financially viable.
It would be a surprise if they went ahead without first making some big sales, having already signed Hincapie and Tzolis this summer for nearly a combined £70m.
They have raised around £32m through selling Trossard, Kiwior, and Karl Hein. The question is whether there will need to be further significant sales for this to go through.
Martinelli, who Vinicius would replace on the left, and potentially Gabriel Jesus and Norgaard could generate significant fees. Nwaneri might generate a bit more, and that could be controversial.
Havertz and Odegaard are in the last two years of their deals and have struggled with injuries. They would be very unpopular sales, but it is something Arsenal might have to look at if they want to be truly ruthless and finally break their all-time sale record, which remains Oxlade-Chamberlain to Liverpool for £35m.
You think about Garnacho going for £8m more than that to Aston Villa, and it is just astounding. But if Arsenal want to make these Galactico signings, they have to be absolutely ruthless when it comes to player sales.