Arsenal will endeavour to get their top-four charge back on track when Aston Villa welcome them to Villa Park for Saturday's early Premier League kickoff.
Steven Gerrard's side went down 2-1 to West Ham United last weekend, while the Gunners lost 2-0 to Liverpool in midweek.
Match preview
© Reuters
It was an emotional occasion at the London Stadium last Sunday, but unfortunately for Aston Villa, there was little joy to be had, as top-four chasing West Ham abruptly ended the Lions' three-game winning streak with a 2-1 success on their own turf.
Ukraine's Andriy Yarmolenko caused a few tears as he opened the scoring in clinical fashion in the 70th minute before Pablo Fornals seemingly made sure of the result with eight minutes remaining, although Jacob Ramsey struck a sublime late consolation to make things interesting.
However, Villa's three-game winning run with three clean sheets in tow before the West Ham loss has seen Gerrard's men cement their position in the top half of the Premier League table, with the Lions sitting pretty in ninth at the time of writing.
Gerrard's crop may have put four unanswered goals past Southampton during their last game at Villa Park, but performances at home have been rather hard to come by for the West Midlands side, who had previously gone four without a win on their own turf before the Saints paid a visit.
Villa have developed something of a penchant for lunchtime kickoffs, though - winning each of their last four 12:30pm Saturday encounters - and Mikel Arteta is less than happy with the Gunners' lack of recovery time for the early journey.
© Reuters
Attempting to get one over a rampant Liverpool was a step too far for top-four chasing Arsenal, and although a resilient first 45 minutes sparked optimism among Gooners, the Reds' clinical qualities came to the fore in the second period.
The Gunners' nemesis Diogo Jota beat Aaron Ramsdale at his near post seconds before being taken off for Roberto Firmino, who had the simple job of converting from close range just after the hour mark after some strong play from Andy Robertson down the left.
Arteta witnessed his side's five-game winning run come to an end in frustrating fashion on the Emirates soil, but the Gunners remain in the driving seat when it comes to the Champions League race - still in fourth and a point clear of Manchester United with two games in hand.
Arteta was not a happy bunny after the Liverpool loss as he navigates a recovery period of less than 72 hours for the trip to Villa Park, but the fatigued Gunners can take confidence from their four-game winning run away from home in the Premier League, and their youthful attackers have struck 13 goals on rival turf in that period.
Arsenal ran out 3-1 winners when they welcomed Aston Villa to the Emirates earlier this season, but they have suffered back-to-back 1-0 defeats at Villa Park since the Lions returned to the big time in 2019, and it is clear who the fresher set of legs will belong to this weekend.
- L
- L
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Villa left-back Lucas Digne lasted a mere 10 minutes against West Ham before being taken off with a muscle issue and has been ruled out of this battle, with Kortney Hause also absent due to an abdominal issue.
Douglas Luiz and ex-Gunner Calum Chambers both left the pitch with facial injuries after the win over West Ham - with the former needing to undergo surgery - and Gerrard may not be prepared to risk either man from the off here.
Ashley Young is set to deputise for Digne on the left-hand side, but with Marvelous Nakamba still absent, Gerrard may be forced to turn to Morgan Sanson to fill the void in the engine room.
Meanwhile, Arsenal did not pick up any fresh concerns in the defeat to Liverpool, with Takehiro Tomiyasu (calf) still a doubt after being left out of the Japan squad for March's World Cup qualifiers.
Arteta will certainly ponder changes given the quick turnaround, with Gabriel Martinelli - who ran himself into the ground on Wednesday night - possibly making way for Emile Smith Rowe.
Nicolas Pepe, Eddie Nketiah and Albert Sambi Lokonga are waiting patiently for their opportunities, but Arteta may demand another 90 minutes from most of his big-hitters before the international break.
Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Mings, Young; McGinn, Sanson, Ramsey; Coutinho; Ings, Watkins
Arsenal possible starting lineup:
Ramsdale; Cedric, White, Gabriel, Tierney; Xhaka, Partey; Saka, Odegaard, Smith Rowe; Lacazette
We say: Aston Villa 1-2 Arsenal
While Villa will aim to take advantage of Arsenal's jellied legs and hit to the confidence, a few more injury concerns - especially to lynchpin Luiz - is hardly ideal for the hosts.
Villa Park has not been a happy hunting ground for the Gunners in recent times, but Villa are still lacking that little bit of consistency under Gerrard, and we think Arteta's side have what it takes to shade a close contest and consolidate their hold on fourth spot.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 44.47%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 30.06% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.1%) and 0-2 (7.64%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-0 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Arsenal in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Arsenal.
