We asked AI to predict Champions League winner after knockout draw as true Arsenal chances revealed

The 2026 Champions League knockout draw has taken place and set up a series of blockbuster ties, pitting Europe’s heavyweights against one another far earlier than some would have hoped.

With the bracket now locked in all the way to the final, the path to lifting the illustrious trophy is now clearer, and potentially more treacherous, than ever before.

From huge Round of 16 clashes such as Real Madrid vs Manchester City to a repeat of the 2025 Club World Cup final between Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea, there is no shortage of drama following the draw.

So, using current performance trends and power-ranking indicators, Sports Mole asked AI to simulate the remainder of the competition and to predict who reaches the final before eventually raising the 2026 Champions League trophy.

2026 Champions League knockout draw in full

© Imago / Mandoga Media

Round of 16

• PSG vs Chelsea

• Galatasaray vs Liverpool

• Real Madrid vs Man City

• Atalanta vs Bayern Munich

• Newcastle vs Barcelona

• Atletico Madrid vs Tottenham

• Bodo/Glimt vs Sporting

• Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal

Quarter-finals

• QF1: PSG or Chelsea vs Galatasaray or Liverpool

• QF2: Real Madrid or Man City vs Atalanta or Bayern

• QF3: Newcastle or Barcelona vs Atletico or Tottenham

• QF4: Bodo/Glimt or Sporting CP vs Leverkusen or Arsenal

Semi-finals

• SF1: QF1 winner vs QF2 winner

• SF2: QF3 winner vs QF4 winner

Final

• SF1 winner vs SF2 winner

How the Champions League simulation played out from the Round of 16

© Imago / Visionhaus

In the Round of 16, the model leaned heavily on underlying European performance metrics. PSG were projected to make it past Chelsea, while Liverpool proved too strong for Galatasaray. In the standout tie of the round, Manchester City were managed to eliminate Real Madrid in a razor-tight contest, and Bayern Munich advanced past Atalanta.

Elsewhere, Barcelona saw off Newcastle, Tottenham Hotspur surprisingly edged out Atletico Madrid, Sporting beat Bodo/Glimt, and Arsenal overcame Bayer Leverkusen.

The quarter-finals delivered elite-level clashes.

Liverpool eliminated PSG, while Manchester City narrowly overcame Bayern Munich. On the other side of the bracket, Barcelona dispatched Tottenham, and Arsenal proved too strong for Sporting.

That set up two exciting semi-finals of Manchester City vs Liverpool, and Barcelona vs Arsenal.

City’s form, squad depth and control gave them the edge in an all-English showdown, while Arsenal’s defensive structure and attacking efficiency saw them defeat Barcelona to reach the final.

So, in Europe, it's likely to be a repeat of the Carabao Cup final between Manchester City vs Arsenal, and the model suggests that Pep Guardiola's side will actually emerge as 2–1 winners in a tightly contested affair.

Arsenal chances of winning 2026 Champions League revealed

© Imago / NurPhoto

Despite falling short in the simulated final, the Gunners' projected run underlines their status as one of Europe’s strongest sides this season.

Their route, likely via Leverkusen, Sporting and Barcelona, is challenging but navigable, particularly given their strong defensive ability, set-piece nous and consistent attacking output in Europe.

Based on aggregated power-ranking style projections and bracket difficulty, Arsenal’s probability of winning the entire competition sits between 22% and 27%, placing them firmly among the top contenders but just behind Manchester City in overall likelihood.

Their chance of reaching the final was projected at roughly 40-45% following the knockout draw, which reflects both their favourable quarter-final path and the balance of the rest of the bracket.

In short, while City now appear to be the favourites to win the competition, Arsenal’s true chances to win their first-ever Champions League trophy are very real, and this draw may represent one of their clearest routes to European glory in many years.