In a crucial battle at the bottom of the Bundesliga, 17th-placed Arminia Bielefeld take on a recently improved Stuttgart side on Saturday afternoon.
After the visitors fought back to win a six-pointer with Augsburg before the international break, they sit a point above their hosts in the tightly-packed lower half of the table.
Match preview
© Reuters
A tally of seven points from the last three games for Stuttgart - who have come from behind in all of them - has lifted an outfit apparently bound for relegation up to 14th place in the standings on goal difference.
Late Omar Marmoush and Tiago Tomas goals pilfered the points against Augsburg last time out, as Pellegrino Matarazzo's men sealed a potentially skin-saving win against the odds.
Having survived an Andre Hahn header which struck their crossbar in the closing stages, snatching a winner five minutes from time took VfB clear of both Augsburg and Hertha Berlin - the latter currently occupying the relegation play-off spot.
Die Roten's survival hopes had previously been boosted by ending a nine-game winless run, as they defeated Borussia Monchengladbach 3-2 at home, before taking a point home from Union Berlin's Stadion An der Alten Forsterei, when returning hero Sasa Kalajdzic stole a late equaliser - scoring in the 90th minute to force a 1-1 draw.
After conceding twice against Augsburg, though, Stuttgart remain the only Bundesliga team yet to keep a clean sheet on home soil this season. While their defensive record is significantly better on the road, they have managed just one away win so far this term, and are keen to add a second on Saturday.
© Reuters
Frank Kramer's ailing Arminia side welcome Stuttgart to Bielefelder Alm this weekend seriously needing a repeat of their victory in November's reverse fixture, when they took three points home from the Mercedes-Benz Arena thanks to an early Masaya Okugawa goal.
Saturday's hosts went into their final fixture before the international break having lost three on the bounce - a sequence which left them perilously placed, just one position above the relegation playoff spot.
They had already suffered back-to-back defeats against opponents Mainz during October - being dumped out of the DFB Cup before losing the teams' subsequent Bundesliga encounter - so were also keen to avoid a third reverse to the 05ers in a matter of months.
On both previous occasions, Jonathan Burkardt was on target for Mainz, and with just 28 seconds on the clock this time around, had swept home the opening goal. Conceding three second-half penalties saw a dejected Arminia beaten 4-0 by the final whistle, and they now languish in one of the two automatic relegation spots.
Since relieving some pressure with a victory over Union Berlin in mid-February, Die Blauen have been dragged back into the drop zone as a result of their worrying slump in form.
Having won just five league games all term - with only basement side Greuther Furth recording fewer - Kramer's men have not scored a single goal during their four-match losing streak, and a sorry total of just one in their last six demonstrates the main reason for their decline.
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- D
- L
- W
- D
- W
- D
- L
- W
- D
- W
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Pellegrino Matarazzo has seen the recent return of star striker Sasa Kalajdzic from injury bring about an improvement in Stuttgart's fortunes in the final third, having netted three times in his last five appearances.
The Austria international - who was recently part of the squad that lost out to Wales in the World Cup playoffs - should once again lead the line in an attacking trio also featuring Omar Marmoush and Sporting loanee Tiago Tomas, who both scored last time out.
While Naouirou Ahamada (toe), Nikolas Nartey (knee), Silas (shoulder) remain injured for the away side, both Lilian Egloff (back) and Dutch forward Mohamed Sankoh (knee) could now be available.
Croatia full-back Borna Sosa registered his seventh assist of the campaign a fortnight ago - also his third in as many games - and starts on the left side of a back four.
Meanwhile, Arminia are expected to have veteran midfielder Gonzalo Castro - formerly of Stuttgart - back from a brush with COVID-19, and Cedric Brunner returns after serving a suspension against Mainz. The latter is likely to start a right-back, with Nathan de Medina set to make way.
Arminia Bielefeld possible starting lineup:
Ortega; Brunner, Nilsson, Ramos, Andrade; Kunze, Vasiliadis, Schopf; Wimmer, Serra, Kruger
Stuttgart possible starting lineup:
Muller; Stenzel, Anton, Mavropanos, Sosa; Karazor, Endo, Fuhrich; Tomas, Kalajdzic, Marmoush
We say: Arminia Bielefeld 1-2 Stuttgart
Stuttgart have discovered their scoring touch just in time for the crucial run-in, and they can be expected to breach a brittle Arminia rearguard on at least one occasion.
The visitors' renewed confidence should therefore help them edge this battle for survival and lift them further clear of the bottom two.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arminia Bielefeld win with a probability of 38.67%. A win for Stuttgart had a probability of 34.91% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arminia Bielefeld win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.39%) and 2-0 (6.69%). The likeliest Stuttgart win was 0-1 (9.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.
