Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 55.6%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Union had a probability of 17.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.25%) and 2-1 (8.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.77%), while for a Union win it was 0-1 (7.98%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.