Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 38.6%. A win for Belgrano had a probability of 32% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.66%) and 0-2 (7.56%). The likeliest Belgrano win was 1-0 (11.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Lanus in this match.