Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tigre win with a probability of 37.02%. A win for Lanus had a probability of 31.56% and a draw had a probability of 31.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tigre win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.5%) and 2-1 (6.87%). The likeliest Lanus win was 0-1 (13.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.