Europa League Gameweek 3
Oct 22, 2026 5.45pm
0
4
HT : 0 2
FT Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium
  • Bruno Wilson 23' yellowcard
  • Armen Ambartsumyan 44' yellowcard
  • goal Valdemar Byskov Andreasen 21'
  • goal Weslley Patati 27'
  • goal Weslley Patati 76'
  • goal Mexx Meerdink 79'

Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Ararat-Armenia

All competitions
Europa League
Last game
Sep 16, 2026 5.45pm
Ararat-Armenia 1 - 4 Sparta Prague

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions
Europa League
Last game
Sep 16, 2026 8.00pm
Sunderland 1 - 0 AZ

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 51.32%. A win for Ararat-Armenia had a probability of 26.3% and a draw had a probability of 22.31%.

The most likely scoreline for a AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.5%) and 0-2 (8.19%). The likeliest Ararat-Armenia win was 2-1 (6.36%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.4%).

Result

Ararat-Armenia 26.3% ▼ (-4.20)
Draw 22.31% ▼ (-0.11)
AZ Alkmaar 51.32% ▲ (+4.30)

Both Teams to Score: 

55.85% ▼ (-4.06)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.9% ▼ (-2.40)
Under 1.5 21.1% ▲ (+2.40)
Over 2.5 56.63% ▼ (-3.23)
Under 2.5 43.37% ▲ (+3.23)
Over 3.5 34.46% ▼ (-2.91)
Under 3.5 65.53% ▲ (+2.90)
Over 4.5 21.3% ▼ (-1.74)
Under 4.5 78.7% ▲ (+1.74)

First Half Winner

Ararat-Armenia 27.13%
Draw 36.21%
AZ Alkmaar 36.66%

Team To Score First

Ararat-Armenia 43.94% ▼ (-0.42)
No Goal 5.45% ▲ (+0.90)
AZ Alkmaar 50.61% ▼ (-0.49)

Corners

Over 8 60.86%
Equal 8 10.7%
Under 8 28.44%
Over 9 49.73%
Equal 9 11.13%
Under 9 39.14%
Over 10.5 39.05%
Under 10.5 60.95%

Ararat-Armenia Goals

Over 1.5 30.46% ▼ (-5.36)
Under 1.5 69.54% ▲ (+5.36)
Over 2.5 11.78% ▼ (-2.86)
Under 2.5 88.22% ▲ (+2.85)
Over 3.5 4.2% ▼ (-1.07)
Under 3.5 95.8% ▲ (+1.07)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5 79.41% ▲ (+1.30)
Under 0.5 20.59% ▼ (-1.31)
Over 1.5 50.28% ▲ (+1.22)
Under 1.5 49.72% ▼ (-1.22)
Over 2.5 25.28% ▲ (+0.82)
Under 2.5 74.72% ▼ (-0.82)
Over 3.5 10.28% ▲ (+0.37)
Under 3.5 89.72% ▼ (-0.38)

Score analysis

Ararat-Armenia 26.3%
Draw 22.32%
AZ Alkmaar 51.34%
Ararat-Armenia
2-1 @ 6.36% ▼ (-0.90)
1-0 @ 5.87% ▼ (-0.13)
2-0 @ 3.66% ▼ (-0.61)
3-1 @ 2.63% ▼ (-0.63)
3-2 @ 2.21% ▼ (-0.50)
3-0 @ 1.53% ▼ (-0.41)
Other @ 4.04% ▼ (-1.04)
Total : 26.3%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.4% ▼ (-0.03)
0-0 @ 5.45% ▲ (+0.90)
2-2 @ 5.1% ▼ (-0.67)
3-3 @ 1.21% ▼ (-0.25)
Other @ 0.16% ▼ (-0.05)
Total : 22.32%
AZ Alkmaar
0-1 @ 9.74% ▲ (+1.65)
1-2 @ 9.5% ▲ (+0.12)
0-2 @ 8.19% ▲ (+1.45)
1-3 @ 5.44% ▲ (+0.15)
0-3 @ 4.79% ▲ (+0.88)
2-3 @ 3.56% ▼ (-0.34)
Other @ 10.12% ▲ (+0.41)
Total : 51.34%