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Alaves logo
La Liga | Gameweek 27
Mar 13, 2021 at 1pm UK
Mendizorroza, Vitoria, Basque Country
Cadiz logo

Alaves
1 - 1
Cadiz

Joselu (36' pen.)
Pina (70'), Garcia (80')
Garcia (81')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Alex (84' pen.)
Salvi (34'), Perea (41'), Fali (74'), Saponjic (90+2')

Preview: Alaves vs. Cadiz - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga clash between Alaves and Cadiz, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Saturday's La Liga action kicks off with a relegation scrap between Alaves and Cadiz at the Estadio Mendizorrotza.

Alaves, who have never beaten Cadiz in La Liga, could find themselves bottom of the division if they fail to pick up three points this weekend and other results go against them.


Match preview

Alaves coach Abelardo Fernandez pictured on January 23, 2021© Reuters

Alaves come into this match on the back of four consecutive league defeats, a run that has seen them concede 13 goals in the process.

Alaves have now lost seven out of the nine league games played under Abelardo. El Glorioso fans may well remember that it was a defeat against Cadiz that spelled the end for former boss Pablo Machin.

Against Real Betis last time out, 19th-placed Alaves were unlucky not to come away with more to show for their efforts. Abelardo's men led the Andalusian outfit by two goals at half time. However, Betis clawed their way back into the tie and eventually won 3-2.

Following the end of the 90 minutes, Abelardo told the press that it was a "lack of concentration" that lost his side the lead.

While Abelardo will be desperately targeting three points this weekend, the odds are not in his side's favour; El Glorioso have lost four of their last five home games in the league.

Alvaro Negredo celebrates scoring for Cadiz against Barcelona on December 5, 2020© Reuters

Prior to their victory over Eibar last weekend, Cadiz were beginning to look like a team in trouble following a dismal run of results where they picked up just one point in six games.

However, a 1-0 win courtesy of their evergreen veteran Alvaro Negredo went a long way in terms of putting some distance between Andalusia's Yellow Submarine and the dreaded relegation zone.

Negredo's contribution to Cadiz's success has been invaluable so far in the current campaign. The former Manchester City poacher has been directly involved in almost half of Cadiz's La Liga goals this season.

Currently 14th in the standings, Cadiz could climb as high as 12th with a win over Alaves this weekend.

Cadiz boss Alvaro Cervera will take confidence from the fact that Cadiz have won two of their last three away games against Basque sides in the league.

Alaves La Liga form:
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L

Cadiz La Liga form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • W


Team News

Cadiz's Alvaro Negredo celebrates scoring their second goal in January 2021© Reuters

Abelardo has been fortunate that during his time at the club he has not had to concern himself with many high-profile injuries.

Defenders Javi Lopez, Abdel Abqar and Rodrigo Ely are all unavailable for this tie due to injury.

Likewise, Cervera does not have any major treatment table crises at the moment. However, the Cadiz boss will still be without defender Fali for this fixture.

Other absentees include Carlos Akapo and Luismi Quezada, who are recovering from respective knee and muscle injuries.

Alaves possible starting lineup:
Pacheco; Navarro, Laguardia, Lejeune, Duarte; Pellistri, Battaglia, Manu Garcia, Rioja; Joselu, Edgar Mendez

Cadiz possible starting lineup:
Ledesma; Carcelen, Mauro, Cala, Espino; Salvi, Jonsson, Mari, Fernandez; Negredo, Sobrino


SM words green background

We say: Alaves 0-1 Cadiz

This is not exactly a game between two of La Liga's most prominent sides so do not expect a display of fine football. We think Cadiz will come out on top after a scrappy 90 minutes, but the margins will be fine.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Written by
Francis Buchanan

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cadiz win with a probability of 34.85%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 33.66% and a draw had a probability of 31.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cadiz win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (6.92%) and 1-2 (6.61%). The likeliest Alaves win was 1-0 (13.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Alaves vs Cadiz

Alaves
33.3%
Draw
25.0%
Cadiz
41.7%
12
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2Real Madrid17114237162137
3Atletico MadridAtletico16105130111935
4Athletic Bilbao1795326151132
5Mallorca188371821-327
6Villarreal157532725226
7Osasuna176742225-325
8Real Sociedad167361611524
9GironaGirona176472325-222
10Sevilla176471823-522
11Real BetisBetis165651820-221
12Celta Vigo176382528-321
13Rayo Vallecano165561819-120
14Las PalmasLas Palmas165382227-518
15Getafe163761113-216
16AlavesAlaves164391827-915
17Leganes163671423-915
18Espanyol1642101528-1314
19Real ValladolidValladolid1733111234-2212
20Valencia152491323-1010


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