Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Senegal win with a probability of 47.45%. A draw had a probability of 30.5% and a win for Burkina Faso had a probability of 22.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Senegal win was 0-1 with a probability of 17.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.59%) and 1-2 (7.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.96%), while for a Burkina Faso win it was 1-0 (10.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Senegal would win this match.