Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botswana win with a probability of 35.1%. A win for Libya had a probability of 33.9% and a draw had a probability of 31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botswana win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.92%) and 2-1 (6.79%). The likeliest Libya win was 0-1 (13.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Botswana in this match.