Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Mar 24, 2023 8.30pm
3
0
HT : 2 0
FT
  • Youssef Msakni 12' goal
  • Ali Maaloul 21' goal
  • Haythem Jouini 86' goal

Tunisia vs Libya - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Tunisia

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last game
Jun 5, 2022 2.00pm
Botswana 0 - 0 Tunisia

Libya

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last game
Jun 6, 2022 8.00pm
Eq Guinea 2 - 0 Libya

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tunisia win with a probability of 69.65%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Libya had a probability of 8.99%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tunisia win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (16.79%) and 3-0 (9.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (10.62%), while for a Libya win it was 0-1 (4.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Tunisia would win this match.

Result

Tunisia 69.65% (+0.04)
Draw 21.36% (+0.01)
Libya 8.99% (-0.05)

Both Teams to Score: 

30.84% (-0.13)

Goals

Over 2.5 38.86% (-0.10)
Under 2.5 61.14% (+0.10)
Over 3.5 18.9% (-0.08)
Under 3.5 81.1% (+0.08)

Tunisia Goals

Over 0.5 83.11% (-0.03)
Under 0.5 16.89% (+0.02)
Over 1.5 53.07% (-0.04)
Under 1.5 46.92% (+0.04)

Libya Goals

Over 0.5 37.11% (-0.15)
Under 0.5 62.89% (+0.15)
Over 1.5 7.94% (-0.08)
Under 1.5 92.06% (+0.07)

Score analysis

Tunisia 69.64%
Draw 21.36%
Libya 8.99%
Tunisia
1-0 @ 18.89% (+0.07)
2-0 @ 16.79% (+0.03)
3-0 @ 9.96% (+0.02)
2-1 @ 7.79% (-0.03)
3-1 @ 4.62% (-0.02)
4-0 @ 4.43% (+0.01)
4-1 @ 2.05% (-0.01)
5-0 @ 1.58%
3-2 @ 1.07% (-0.01)
Other @ 2.46%
Total : 69.64%
Draw
0-0 @ 10.62% (+0.04)
1-1 @ 8.76% (-0.02)
2-2 @ 1.81% (-0.02)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 21.36%
Libya
0-1 @ 4.93% (-0.01)
1-2 @ 2.03% (-0.02)
0-2 @ 1.14% (-0.01)
Other @ 0.89%
Total : 8.99%