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AFC Wimbledon
League One | Gameweek 38
Mar 27, 2021 at 3pm UK
Cherry Red Records Fans' Stadium
Northampton Town

AFC Wimbledon
1 - 0
Northampton

Pigott (88')
Woodyard (74'), Palmer (90+3')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Preview: AFC Wimbledon vs. Northampton Town - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between AFC Wimbledon and Northampton Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

AFC Wimbledon welcome Northampton Town to Plough Lane on Saturday, in a crucial game at the bottom of the League One table.

After a seven-game winless run, the hosts find themselves in 23rd spot, while Northampton sit just three points ahead in 20th place, with just a two-point cushion between themselves and the bottom four.


Match preview

Northampton Town's Ryan Watson and Bristol City's Kasey Palmer in the EFL Cup on September 16, 2020© Reuters

AFC Wimbledon picked up a commendable point last time out, as they drew 2-2 at home to seventh-placed Charlton Athletic.

The visitors took the lead on two separate occasions through Jayden Stockley and Diallang Jaiyesimi, but a Ryan Longman brace secured a crucial point for his side.

That was their fifth draw in the last six games, with only Shrewsbury having more than their 12 draws so far this season.

However, the Dons' problems come in the wins column, as no side in the league has recorded fewer than the seven victories that Mark Robinson's men have picked up this campaign.

Unfortunately for Wimbledon, the appointment of Robinson has not brought about the positive changes that were needed at Plough Lane, having won just one of his nine games in charge, while picking up eight points from those matches.

If they are to avoid the drop this campaign, the Dons will have to quickly change their fortunes, but Saturday presents a great opportunity to claw three points back on a side sitting above them in the table, with a win moving them level on points with Northampton.

However, the visitors will be equally desperate for a victory of their own, which could put some crucial space between themselves and the drop zone.

Northampton Town picked up a vital win last time out, as Sam Hoskins fired his side to a 1-0 victory at home to Oxford United.

That win saw the Cobblers move out of the bottom four, leapfrogging Wigan Athletic and Bristol Rovers and moving up to 20th place.

However, they do remain just two points ahead of 21st-placed Bristol Rovers, meaning one bad result could see Northampton quickly drop back into the relegation zone.

Things do look on the up at Sixfields though, with the club picking up 12 points from 11 games since Keith Curle's departure, as he left after a run of one win from 10 games with the side sat 23rd.

Caretaker manager Jon Brady will have his sights set on another victory over a struggling Wimbledon on Saturday, which could give them some distance from the drop zone for the first time since before the turn of the year.

AFC Wimbledon League One form:
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • D

Northampton Town League One form:
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • W


Team News

AFC Wimbledon will be without centre-back Darnell Johnson for this game, after the Leicester loanee recently picked up a ligament injury.

They will also be missing midfielder Callum Reilly, who has been ruled out for the remainder of the season with a fractured ankle.

Some more positive news has come out of the AFC Wimbledon camp though, as both Paul Kalambayi and Daniel Csoka are nearing returns from injuries, although Robinson is unlikely to risk them at this stage.

In Reilly's absence, exciting Brentford loanee Jaakko Oksanen is expected to feature more prominently in midfield alongside Sunderland loanee George Dobson.

Northampton will be without winger Mickel Miller, who recently picked up a hamstring injury which could see him out for the remainder of the season.

In his absence, striker Danny Rose came into the team last time out, forming a potent front three alongside Sam Hoskins and Mark Marshall.

They will also remain without Jack Sowerby and Steve Arnold, with the pair both continuing spells on the sidelines through injury.

AFC Wimbledon possible starting lineup:
Tzanev; O'Neill, Heneghan, Nightingale, Alexander; Dobson, Oksanen; Longman, Woodyard, Rudoni; Pigott

Northampton Town possible starting lineup:
Mitchell; Kioso, Horsfall, Jones, Mills; Watson, Morris, McWilliams; Marshall, Rose, Hoskins


SM words green background

We say: AFC Wimbledon 1-1 Northampton Town

While Northampton have looked rejuvenated under the temporary control of Jon Brady, AFC Wimbledon have shown themselves to be a very tough side to beat on their day, and we would not look past yet another draw for the Dons on Saturday.

The front three of Northampton should have enough to break down the hosts' back line, but we see the sides playing out a draw which would not do much good for either of their survival bids.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 38.21%. A win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 34.11% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.09%) and 0-2 (7.01%). The likeliest AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 (10.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.


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General view outside AFC Wimbledon's Kingsmeadow ground
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