AFC Champions League Gameweek 4
Nov 3, 2026 4.00pm
Basra Sport City Stadium

Esteghlal vs Al Shamal - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Esteghlal

All competitions
AFC Champions League
Last game
Sep 14, 2026 7.15pm
Esteghlal 3 - 0 Al-Sadd

Al Shamal

All competitions
AFC Champions League
Last game
Sep 14, 2026 5.00pm
Al Shamal 1 - 1 Al Ittihad

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Al Shamal win with a probability of 42.25%. A win for Esteghlal has a probability of 31.8% and a draw has a probability of 25.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Al Shamal win is 0-1 with a probability of 10.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.82%) and 0-2 (7.33%). The likeliest Esteghlal win is 1-0 (8.61%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.35%).

Result

Esteghlal 31.8% ▲ (+0.25)
Draw 25.95% ▼ (-0.45)
Al Shamal 42.25% ▲ (+0.21)

Both Teams to Score: 

53.35% ▲ (+1.46)

Goals

Over 1.5 74.01% ▲ (+1.43)
Under 1.5 25.99% ▼ (-1.43)
Over 2.5 49.15% ▲ (+1.75)
Under 2.5 50.85% ▼ (-1.75)
Over 3.5 27.3% ▲ (+1.56)
Under 3.5 72.7% ▼ (-1.55)
Over 4.5 14.74% ▲ (+1.06)
Under 4.5 85.26% ▼ (-1.05)

Esteghlal Goals

Over 1.5 32.2% ▲ (+1.05)
Under 1.5 67.8% ▼ (-1.05)
Over 2.5 11.68% ▲ (+0.62)
Under 2.5 88.32% ▼ (-0.63)
Over 3.5 3.42% ▲ (+0.26)
Under 3.5 96.58% ▼ (-0.27)

Al Shamal Goals

Over 0.5 73.66% ▲ (+0.71)
Under 0.5 26.34% ▼ (-0.70)
Over 1.5 40.63% ▲ (+1.14)
Under 1.5 59.37% ▼ (-1.14)
Over 2.5 17% ▲ (+0.84)
Under 2.5 83% ▼ (-0.85)
Over 3.5 5.72% ▲ (+0.42)
Under 3.5 94.28% ▼ (-0.43)

Score analysis

Esteghlal 31.79%
Draw 25.95%
Al Shamal 42.25%
Esteghlal
1-0 @ 8.61% ▼ (-0.36)
2-1 @ 7.44% ▲ (+0.10)
2-0 @ 5.2% ▼ (-0.05)
3-1 @ 3% ▲ (+0.13)
3-2 @ 2.15% ▲ (+0.15)
3-0 @ 2.09% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 3.3% ▲ (+0.25)
Total : 31.79%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.35% ▼ (-0.17)
0-0 @ 7.13% ▼ (-0.58)
2-2 @ 5.33% ▲ (+0.21)
3-3 @ 1.02%
Other @ 0.12% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 25.95%
Al Shamal
0-1 @ 10.24% ▼ (-0.50)
1-2 @ 8.82% ▲ (+0.09)
0-2 @ 7.33% ▼ (-0.13)
1-3 @ 4.22% ▲ (+0.17)
0-3 @ 3.49% ▲ (+0.02)
2-3 @ 2.55% ▲ (+0.17)
Other @ 5.6% ▲ (+0.41)
Total : 42.25%