Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Ahli win with a probability of 53.7%. A win for Al-Rayyan had a probability of 24.62% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al-Ahli win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.46%) and 0-2 (7.44%). The likeliest Al-Rayyan win was 2-1 (6.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Al-Ahli would win this match.