Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Ahli win with a probability of 40.06%. A win for Al Quadisiya had a probability of 35.27% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al-Ahli win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.19%) and 2-0 (6.19%). The likeliest Al Quadisiya win was 1-2 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Al-Ahli would win this match.