Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Rayyan win with a probability of 43.93%. A win for Al Gharafa had a probability of 33.72% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al-Rayyan win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.93%) and 2-0 (5.46%). The likeliest Al Gharafa win was 1-2 (7.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.