Atalanta BC square off against AC Milan at San Siro on Friday evening aware that they require three points to remain in the Serie A title race.
Meanwhile, Milan head into the contest on the back of five wins from six outings, a run which has put the club in contention for fifth position.
Match preview
© Reuters
With each victory recorded, Stefano Pioli would have felt that he was pushing closer to redemption at San Siro, aware that club officials were intending to replace him in the dugout next season.
However, after an remarkable return of 23 points from a possible 27 since the resumption, the Milan hierarchy found themselves in a position where they had little choice but to extend the stay of a man who divided opinion upon his arrival after a poor spell at neighbours Inter Milan.
The 54-year-old has recorded 16 wins and just six defeats from his 32 matches in charge, and a further improvement on that return over the next three games could be enough for Milan to qualify for next season's Europa League without needing to go through the preliminary rounds.
With Atalanta standing in their way, Pioli will be determined to repay the show of faith in his ability with yet another positive result.
Although Zlatan Ibrahimovic netted a double in the 2-1 win over Sassuolo in midweek, a wide range of players have got on the scoresheet for I Rossoneri since the middle of June, backing up Pioli's view that his group of players have transformed from individuals into a united team.
Despite Milan's recent form, there is an argument that Atalanta should remain as the favourites for this contest as they continue their pursuit of the league title.
While there will be an acknowledgement that they are unlikely to successfully chase down Juventus, Gian Piero Gasperini will want his side to maintain an unbeaten run which has lasted since January 20.
Remarkably, it was a home defeat to now-bottom-placed SPAL which acted as the catalyst for a 17-match unbeaten run in all competitions, but it also highlights what could have been had Atalanta not suffered that shock defeat.
With three matches left, I Nerazzurri are five goals short of reaching 100 in Serie A, although just two strikes have come in their most recent games against Hellas Verona and Bologna.
AC Milan Serie A form: WWDWWW
Atalanta BC Serie A form: WWDWDW
Team News
© Reuters
Milan face the possibility of being without the four defenders which began the last match.
Alessio Romagnoli is out with a muscle problem, while Andrea Conti and Simon Kjaer also sustained issues in the meeting at Sassuolo.
Theo Hernandez is sidelined through suspension, leaving the possibility of Davide Calabria, Franck Kessie, Matteo Gabbia and Diego Laxalt forming a make-shift backline.
With Ismael Bennacer also serving a ban, Lucas Biglia and Giacomo Bonaventura may be used in the middle of the pitch.
Gasperini could recall Ruslan Malinovskiy and Luis Muriel, who may line up in attack with Mario Pasalic playing in the number 10 role.
The remainder of the Atalanta starting lineup could remain the same.
AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Calabria, Kessie, Gabbia, Laxalt; Biglia, Bonaventura; Saelemaekers, Calhanoglu, Rebic; Ibrahimovic
Atalanta BC possible starting lineup:
Gollini; Toloi, Palomino, Djimsiti; Castagne, De Roon, Freuler, Gosens; Pasalic; Malinovskiy, Muriel
We say: AC Milan 2-2 Atalanta BC
Everything points to this encounter being one of the most entertaining tussles since the resumption. With Atalanta needing a win, expect the visitors to go all out for the three points, but we are backing in-form Milan to pose a constant threat at the other end, leading to a draw being played out at San Siro.
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 46.87%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 30.71% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.57%) and 0-2 (6.14%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 2-1 (7.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.
