Having struggled to beat nine-man opponents at the weekend, AC Milan return to action on Tuesday, as they host mid-table Torino at San Siro.
While their late win at Bologna temporarily took the unbeaten Rossoneri top of the Serie A standings, Il Toro posted their first win in five games to creep closer to the top half.
Match preview
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Following more Champions League misery in midweek, Milan visited Emilia-Romagna on Saturday with the aim of maintaining a superb start to their domestic campaign, which has kept them at the front of the pack in the early stages of the Scudetto race.
However, Stefano Pioli's absence-hit side threw away a two-goal half-time lead, with their hosts already down to 10 men. The recently returned Zlatan Ibrahimovic inadvertently turned in Bologna's first, and the Dall'Ara was sent wild with delight when they found an equaliser soon after.
With Roberto Soriano's sending-off then reducing Bologna to nine, the three points were salvaged when Ismael Bennacer put Milan back ahead in the 84th minute, before Ibrahimovic netted at the right end to seal the deal.
Such a comeback was required for the second successive weekend, as Pioli's men were forced to claw their way back from two goals down against Verona to win their previous league game.
Now, with their injury and illness list showing few signs of abating, Milan must kick off a fortnight of potentially season-defining significance with a fixture versus one of their favourite opponents of recent times: Torino crumbled to a humiliating 7-0 defeat when the sides last met in May, and the Rossoneri also knocked them out of last year's Coppa Italia on penalties.
They therefore start as hot favourites on Tuesday evening - having also won five Serie A games on the spin - but must capitalise on their apparent superiority, as they next visit Roma, before hosting Porto in a last-gasp attempt to keep their European hopes alive, and then old foes Inter in the Derby della Madonnina.
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Previously unable to record a victory since the middle of September, despite a late fightback from their visitors, Torino finally earned a welcome three points on Friday night.
Their 3-2 win over lowly Spezia followed a tough run of fixtures, in which the Granata faced Lazio, Napoli and city rivals Juventus in three of their last four outings.
Antonio Sanabria - selected ahead of Italy striker Andrea Belotti by strong-willed coach Ivan Juric - and Tommaso Pobega gave Torino a two-goal cushion at the interval, but only Josip Brekalo's 77th-minute strike effectively put the game out of reach for the away side.
The Turin outfit have sharpened up at the back this term, and are among the teams to have conceded the fewest shots on their goal in Serie A so far - a stark improvement compared to previous seasons, where they were renowned as one of the worst defensive sides on the peninsula.
Juric's influence is surely responsible for such an uplift, considering the personnel remains largely unchanged, but the Croatian coach will face another stiff challenge to his rearguard on Tuesday, as Torino have leaked 14 goals to Milan across their last five league and cup encounters.
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Team News
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Milan have received some positive news on the injury and illness front, relating to the availability of French full-back Theo Hernandez, as he has now recovered from COVID-19 having missed the last three matches and will make the bench. Midfield regular Franck Kessie is also back in action after he missed the Porto defeat due to suspension and then the trip to Bologna due to a cold, so either Sandro Tonali or Ismael Bennacer is set to make way.
However, Samu Castillejo is the latest man to join the treatment room queue at Milanello, after picking up an injury during an increasingly rare start on Saturday. His Spanish compatriot Brahim Diaz (COVID-19), Alessandro Florenzi (knee), Mike Maignan (wrist), Junior Messias (thigh) and Ante Rebic (ankle) will also be sidelined on Tuesday.
In the absence of Rebic, Stefano Pioli has a straight choice between Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Olivier Giroud up front.
The visitors, meanwhile, will be without midfielder Rolando Mandragora for quite some time, after the former Juventus loanee underwent knee surgery earlier this week, while Cristian Ansaldi sustained a thigh injury against Genoa due to injury and is a major doubt to feature at San Siro.
Therefore, Ola Aina is poised to return to the starting XI on the left flank of Ivan Juric's 3-5-2 formation, and Andrea Belotti may earn a recall in attack after completing his comeback from injury with an appearance for the final half-hour at the weekend.
AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Tatarusanu; Calabria, Tomori, Romagnoli, Kalulu; Tonali, Kessie; Saelemaekers, Krunic, Leao; Giroud
Torino possible starting lineup:
Milinkovic-Savic; Djidji, Bremer, Buongiorno; Singo, Lukic, Linetty, Pobega, Aina; Brekalo; Belotti
We say: AC Milan 1-1 Torino
Milan may run out of steam amid a hectic three weeks of action between international breaks, and taking their eye off the ball is a distinct possibility with greater challenges lying ahead.
As the Rossoneri have not convinced since injury and illness started to ravage their fluent first-choice side, Torino can take advantage and steal a point home to Turin if they are clear-headed enough on the break.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 70.6%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Torino had a probability of 11.41%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.13%) and 2-1 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.55%), while for a Torino win it was 0-1 (3.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
