Seeking to extend their advantage at the top of Serie A - for one day at least - AC Milan welcome a faltering Empoli side to San Siro on Saturday.
While the Rossoneri returned to the top of the pile following last week's crucial win over Scudetto rivals Napoli, they have sometimes struggled against the league's minnows so will be keen to take three points against a team yet to win in 2022.
Match preview
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Ending a run of three draws in successful style, Milan edged out one of their fellow title contenders last week, as Olivier Giroud's clever finish proved enough to claim a narrow victory over Napoli at Stadio Maradona.
As a result, Stefano Pioli's side are in first place again - leading city rivals Inter by two points, though having played a game more - and have inched closer to realising dreams of a first championship triumph since 2011.
Though held to a draw by Inter in the clubs' Coppa Italia semi-final first leg at the start of the month, the Rossoneri are still in contention for a domestic double, but to achieve such heights they will surely have to improve their recent record against teams from the league's lower echelons.
Having recently drawn at rock-bottom Salernitana and proved unable to defeat lowly Udinese for the second time this season, Milan have won only two of their last six Serie A encounters with sides in the bottom half of the table.
Pioli may be somewhat concerned, too, about his team's decreasing productivity in the opposition penalty area, as in their last three league games at San Siro neither side has scored more than once - since the end of January, only Genoa's home matches have seen fewer goals.
That may be a far cry from when Milan won 4-2 at Stadio Carlo Castellani in the reverse fixture of this Saturday's engagement, in a period when they scored 13 times in four league and cup games, but titles are often won with as much grit as glamour.
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Remarkably still sitting comfortably in mid-table despite their decline, since mid-December no side has earned fewer points in Serie A than Empoli, who have failed to win a single game in the process.
Losing five and drawing six of their matches during that spell, the Tuscan club are only as high as 13th in the standings due to a combination of their superb start to the season and the inadequacies of others. They do, though, remain 10 points above the relegation zone with 10 games left to play.
The Serie B champions have certainly seen their form nosedive since the turn of the year, but their away record still compares favourably with those around them in the top-flight pecking order - with 21 points from 14 road trips seeing them sit seventh in those rankings.
Curiously, it has been on home soil where the Azzurri have struggled most and leaked the majority of their 53 goals conceded so far - the second-worst total throughout Serie A.
Therefore, a second straight away game may even play in their favour on Saturday night, where they will hope to follow up last week's disappointing goalless draw at Genoa with an almighty shock at San Siro.
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Team News
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While Milan have lost one first-choice defender to suspension, another will return to the fray on Saturday, as Theo Hernandez serves a one-match ban and Alessio Romagnoli is set to be available - at least from the bench.
Having missed Sunday's win over Napoli with a thigh problem, the hosts' captain will most likely return as a substitute, with Pierre Kalulu and Fikayo Tomori proving an able pairing in his absence at Stadio Maradona.
Meanwhile, the recently returned Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Olivier Giroud - who sustained a cut to his ankle before scoring the winner last week - are fit to feature despite training individually over the past few days, and the latter should retain his starting place up front.
The Frenchman will be supported from the left by Rafael Leao, who has completed the most dribbles in Serie A this season (67), while Empoli right-back Petar Stojanovic is the defender featuring highest in that ranking (45) - making for a fascinating match-up on their flank.
Another of the visitors' defenders, Ardian Ismajli, is back in the fold for coach Aurelio Andreazzoli, after serving a suspension last week. However, he must compete with Sebastiano Luperto for a place in the back four.
Scottish midfielder Liam Henderson is set to be recalled, having been demoted to the bench during recent games, which could see Valerio Verre drop out of the starting XI. Top scorer Andrea Pinamonti - on loan from Milan's arch-rivals Inter - starts up front.
AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Calabria, Tomori, Kalulu, Florenzi; Tonali, Bennacer; Messias, Diaz, Leao; Giroud
Empoli possible starting lineup:
Vicario; Stojanovic, S. Romagnoli, Luperto, Parisi; Zurkowski, Asllani, Bandinelli; Henderson, Bajrami; Pinamonti
We say: AC Milan 2-0 Empoli
Only 18th-placed Venezia have conceded more shots on target than Empoli's total of 162 in Serie A this season, so an opportunity surely presents itself for Milan to stretch their lead in the standings.
The hosts' scoring rate may have dipped in recent weeks, but Leao and Giroud have been in impressive form, with 'King Zlatan' also bringing his charismatic presence to bear on the bench. Therefore, Empoli's winless run will roll on.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 66.57%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Empoli had a probability of 13.95%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.83%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.24%), while for a Empoli win it was 0-1 (4.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
