Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 41.26%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 34.41% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.98%) and 0-2 (6.25%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 2-1 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Macarthur | Draw | Adelaide United |
| 34.41% ( | 24.33% ( | 41.26% ( |
| Both teams to score 59.81% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.16% ( | 42.83% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.76% ( | 65.23% ( |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.6% ( | 24.39% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.19% ( | 58.81% ( |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.11% ( | 20.88% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.41% ( | 53.59% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Macarthur | Draw | Adelaide United |
| 2-1 @ 7.94% ( 1-0 @ 7.19% ( 2-0 @ 5.07% ( 3-1 @ 3.73% ( 3-2 @ 2.93% ( 3-0 @ 2.38% ( 4-1 @ 1.32% ( 4-2 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 2.82% Total : 34.41% | 1-1 @ 11.25% ( 2-2 @ 6.22% ( 0-0 @ 5.09% ( 3-3 @ 1.53% ( Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.32% | 1-2 @ 8.82% ( 0-1 @ 7.98% ( 0-2 @ 6.25% ( 1-3 @ 4.6% ( 0-3 @ 3.26% ( 2-3 @ 3.25% ( 1-4 @ 1.8% ( 0-4 @ 1.28% ( 2-4 @ 1.27% ( Other @ 2.76% Total : 41.26% |