Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lahti win with a probability of 51.86%. A win for TPS had a probability of 24.4% and a draw had a probability of 23.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lahti win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.27%) and 0-2 (7.92%). The likeliest TPS win was 1-0 (6.11%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.