Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 51.76%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Ilves had a probability of 22.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.88%) and 1-2 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.99%), while for a Ilves win it was 1-0 (7.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HJK Helsinki would win this match.