Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vaasan Palloseura win with a probability of 40.79%. A win for HJK Helsinki had a probability of 34.4% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vaasan Palloseura win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.49%) and 0-2 (6.41%). The likeliest HJK Helsinki win was 2-1 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.