Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vaasan Palloseura win with a probability of 41.46%. A win for IFK Mariehamn had a probability of 33.19% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vaasan Palloseura win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.83%) and 0-2 (6.84%). The likeliest IFK Mariehamn win was 1-0 (8.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vaasan Palloseura would win this match.