Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vaasan Palloseura win with a probability of 36.79%. A win for IFK Mariehamn had a probability of 36.11% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vaasan Palloseura win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.04%) and 2-0 (6.51%). The likeliest IFK Mariehamn win was 0-1 (10.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.