Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Honka win with a probability of 44.43%. A win for IFK Mariehamn had a probability of 29.68% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Honka win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.85%). The likeliest IFK Mariehamn win was 0-1 (8.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.