Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Holstein Kiel win with a probability of 41.84%. A win for Nuremberg had a probability of 33.11% and a draw had a probability of 25.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Holstein Kiel win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (6.77%). The likeliest Nuremberg win was 1-2 (7.91%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.