Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 55.01%. A win for Hertha Berlin had a probability of 24.03% and a draw had a probability of 21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.11%) and 1-0 (6.77%). The likeliest Hertha Berlin win was 1-2 (6.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hamburger SV would win this match.