Preview: San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks: Player props, injury report and prediction | NBA

The defending Western Conference champions San Antonio Spurs travel to American Airlines Center on Saturday night to face a severely depleted Dallas Mavericks in a back-to-back fixture that has already been reshaped by Cooper Flagg's shoulder injury, stripping Dallas of their most significant player just hours before their home opener.

San Antonio went 62-20 last season, beat Oklahoma City in seven games in the Western Conference Finals and pushed the No. 3 seed New York Knicks to five games in the NBA Finals before falling 4-1 in the franchise's first Finals appearance since 2014.

Dallas, meanwhile, collapsed to 26-56 under Jason Kidd, prompting an overhaul that brought in president Masai Ujiri and first-year head coach Dusty May.

The 2026-27 season was supposed to be the moment everything clicked around Flagg and Kyrie Irving. So far, a six-player injury list says otherwise.

What the form book says about San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks

Form Guide

San Antonio Spurs

0-2 · 9th Western Conference

Last 5 (2025-26 NBA Finals + 2026-27 regular season)

W L L L L

107.0PPG

115.0Opp PPG

106.5Off. rating

114.4Def. rating

Dallas Mavericks

1-1 · 10th Western Conference

Last 5 (2025-26 regular season + 2026-27 regular season)

L L W L W

115.5PPG

116.5Opp PPG

116.1Off. rating

117.7Def. rating

San Antonio's 0-2 start is jarring on paper given what they did last season, but context matters here: they opened with Oklahoma City at home and then faced Houston as a -4.5 favourite on the first night of this very back-to-back, losing 110-114.

Dallas, despite all the pre-season optimism, is giving off similarly mixed signals. They were blown out by 18 at Houston in their opener before turning around and beating Indiana as +7.5 underdogs on Friday, aided largely by Flagg's 14 points in 17 minutes before his exit and Kyrie Irving's 24 in 25 minutes of managed play.

The problem for Dallas is not what happens when their two best players are on the floor. A deep dive into their opener against Houston revealed the real structural flaw.

In 11 minutes with both Flagg and Irving off the court at the same time, Dallas's defence was carved open at a 145.8 offensive rating. Their bench unit has no reliable creator to organise possessions, a concern that will only sharpen tonight given Flagg's availability is in serious doubt.

The numbers above require a caveat that applies to both sides, since this is a two-game sample in a season that opened less than a week ago, and both teams are coming off the first night of a back-to-back.

Dallas's 35.2% from three is the one number that holds up with slightly more weight, with the Mavericks shooting 41% from deep in the Indiana win and showing the perimeter accuracy that becomes dangerous when Irving is operating at full throttle.

But the turnover gap is real. San Antonio are giving the ball away 14.5 times a game to Dallas's 18.0, and in a game where the Mavericks are already shorthanded, every possession will count. That differential translates into roughly three to four extra Spurs possessions over 48 minutes, which is significant when you have Wembanyama waiting at the other end.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks: team news and injury report

The injury situation in Dallas has fundamentally changed the nature of this game.

Flagg, the 2026 Rookie of the Year, hurt his shoulder during Friday's win at Indiana and came off after 17 minutes. He is listed as game-time decision but his availability must be treated with serious doubt going into a second consecutive night.

The loss of Dereck Lively II from the starting center role is also significant. Lively was the primary rim protector that forced opponents to earn their inside looks; without him, Daniel Gafford carries that responsibility alone, and the mismatch against Wembanyama becomes even more pronounced.

San Antonio are relatively clean in comparison. Harris's absence removes their designated power forward off the bench, but with Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle and Devin Vassell all available, the Spurs' five-man core is completely intact.

The probable starting five for San Antonio is Fox, Harper, Vassell, Castle and Wembanyama, unchanged from Friday's lineup against Houston. For Dallas, with Flagg likely absent, Naji Marshall is the most probable forward replacement alongside P.J. Washington, Gafford, Irving and Max Christie.

The matchups that could shape San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks

Key Matchups

The Wemby problem

V. Wembanyama

SAS

VS

D. Gafford

DAL

25Wemby pts (last game)

13Wemby reb (last game)

4Gafford pts (last game)

3Gafford reb (last game)

Wembanyama against a frontcourt that has now lost its best rim protector in Lively II is the central problem Dallas cannot solve tonight. Gafford is an efficient finisher who works off the lob, but he has neither the length nor the lateral mobility to meaningfully deter Wembanyama in space. San Antonio will consistently put the ball in his hands at the elbow and trust him to make the right decision.

Irving vs Fox in a battle of minutes

D. Fox

SAS

VS

K. Irving

DAL

19Fox pts (last game)

9Fox ast (last game)

24Irving pts (last game)

25Irving min (last game)

Irving is capped in the mid-20s for minutes as he rebuilds from his ACL recovery, which gives Fox a genuine stamina edge in the second half. Fox had nine assists and 19 points against Houston on Friday and is the more reliable on-ball organiser across a full 48 minutes. If Irving is running the Mavericks offence effectively in the first half and then sits, the gap that opens without both him and Flagg will be enormous.

The Wembanyama-Gafford dynamic will shape the game's flow from the opening tip, but the backcourt storyline has its own subplot worth tracking after the summer.

Fox averaged just 12.8 points on 34.3% shooting from the field and 25.0% from three in the NBA Finals against New York, while Harper emerged from the bench with 18 points per game over those five games.

The conversation about their long-term roles in San Antonio will run all season, and Fox will be keen to put a marker down early on a night where Wembanyama is drawing Dallas's defensive attention.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks player props to watch

Player Props to Watch

Victor WembanyamaSAS

PointsOver 19.5

18.5Season avg (2 GP)

2Games played

Dallas cannot protect the rim without Lively II, and Gafford has neither the length nor the footwork to deter Wembanyama in the mid-range and at the basket. Dallas's defensive rating of 117.7 over two games confirms they are still giving up significant totals, and with Flagg likely absent, the defensive attention Wembanyama typically draws from multiple defenders will be further diluted.

Victor WembanyamaSAS

ReboundsOver 12.5

13.0Season avg (2 GP)

2Games played

Wembanyama was dominant on the glass in Friday's back-to-back opener, and the interior landscape in Dallas is even more favourable tonight. With Lively II out, Gafford is the only credible frontcourt presence on the offensive glass, and Washington is a wing-facing four who does not match up physically in the paint. Wembanyama should own the boards on both ends.

Dylan HarperSAS

PointsOver 17.5

19.0Season avg (2 GP)

20Last game

Harper, son of former NBA champion Ron Harper, scored 20 points against Houston in his most recent outing and has shown the physical attacking instincts that made him so influential coming off the bench in the NBA Finals. Dallas's backcourt defence without Flagg and Caleb Martin is noticeably thinner, and Harper is at his best when defenders are already engaged with Wembanyama.

How have the Spurs and Mavericks fared in their recent meetings?

San Antonio won all four meetings between the sides last season, including a 33-point victory in Dallas on the opening night of the 2025-26 campaign.

The two February wins in San Antonio came when Dallas were already reeling in the middle of what became a 26-56 season, but the April 10 result is more telling as a form reference, since it was a 19-point Spurs win away from home with both sides in their settled rotations as the season wound down.

Overall across the last ten meetings, the head-to-head is level at five wins apiece, but the recent run of dominance runs entirely in San Antonio's direction.

Dallas's overhaul has been substantial enough that the raw historical record carries limited weight, but the franchise continuity on the Spurs' side gives them a meaningful psychological and structural edge on the back of recent history.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks tips and score prediction

San Antonio were the better team for large parts of last season's four meetings with Dallas and have not lost any of their key components from a side that won the Western Conference, and the early weeks of an 82-game NBA regular season rarely tell the full story about either side.

Dallas's home opener was supposed to signal a new direction for a franchise with real ambition, but with the NBA schedule throwing up this kind of matchup in the opening week, it has instead put the structural gap between the sides into sharp relief. Flagg's likely absence simply removes Dallas's best chance of keeping it competitive.