Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 48.3%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 24.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.91%) and 2-1 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.7%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 0-1 (9.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Casa Pia would win this match.
Result | ||
Casa Pia | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
48.3% ( 0.48) | 27.64% ( 0.09) | 24.05% ( -0.57) |
Both teams to score 43.57% ( -0.74) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
38.99% ( -0.68) | 61.01% ( 0.68) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
19% ( -0.51) | 81% ( 0.51) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.57% ( -0.08) | 25.43% ( 0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.75% ( -0.1) | 60.24% ( 0.1) |
Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.43% ( -0.93) | 41.57% ( 0.93) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
21.94% ( -0.82) | 78.06% ( 0.82) |
Score Analysis |
Casa Pia | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
1-0 @ 14.47% ( 0.33) 2-0 @ 9.91% ( 0.21) 2-1 @ 8.7% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 4.52% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 3.97% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 1.55% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 1.36% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.07% Total : 48.3% | 1-1 @ 12.7% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 10.57% ( 0.27) 2-2 @ 3.82% ( -0.11) Other @ 0.55% Total : 27.64% | 0-1 @ 9.28% ( 0) 1-2 @ 5.58% ( -0.16) 0-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.09) 0-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.06) Other @ 1.18% Total : 24.05% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |