Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 47.29%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 25.02%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.58%) and 2-1 (8.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.78%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 0-1 (9.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
47.29% ( 0.2) | 27.68% ( 0.27) | 25.02% ( -0.48) |
Both teams to score 44.3% ( -1.1) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
39.49% ( -1.21) | 60.51% ( 1.21) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
19.37% ( -0.92) | 80.62% ( 0.92) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.31% ( -0.45) | 25.69% ( 0.44) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.39% ( -0.61) | 60.6% ( 0.61) |
Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.62% ( -1.12) | 40.38% ( 1.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23% ( -1.03) | 77% ( 1.03) |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
1-0 @ 14.09% ( 0.45) 2-0 @ 9.58% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 8.69% ( -0.09) 3-0 @ 4.34% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 3.94% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 1.79% ( -0.1) 4-0 @ 1.48% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.34% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.05% Total : 47.29% | 1-1 @ 12.78% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 10.37% ( 0.46) 2-2 @ 3.94% ( -0.16) Other @ 0.58% Total : 27.67% | 0-1 @ 9.41% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 5.8% ( -0.17) 0-2 @ 4.27% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.11) 0-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.09) Other @ 1.32% Total : 25.02% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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