Atlanta United will be looking to restore some pride this weekend following their humbling defeat against the Red Bulls. However, they face a Philadelphia Union side who have enjoyed the better of this fixture over the last two years. While home advantage makes the Pineda's men slight favourites, we predict that the visitors will do just enough to force a share of the spoils.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 48.11%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 28.03% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.94%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 1-2 (6.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atlanta United would win this match.
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