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Mexico national football team
World Cup Qualifying - North Central America | Third Round
Oct 8, 2021 at 2.40am UK
 
Canada national football team

Mexico
1 - 1
Canada

Sanchez (21')
Corona (57')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Osorio (42')
Eustaquio (55'), Laryea (57'), Buchanan (68'), Vitoria (83')

Preview: Mexico vs. Canada - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's World Cup Qualifying - North Central America clash between Mexico and Canada, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Thursday will feature a rematch from the 2021 Gold Cup semi-finals as Mexico host Canada from Estadio Azteca.

The Mexicans are unbeaten in CONCACAF World Cup 2022 qualifying, after coming back to draw Panama 1-1 in their previous match, while the Canadians picked up their first victory in the Octagon, 3-0 against El Salvador.


Match preview

Mexico manager Gerardo Martino on June 6, 2021© Reuters

Seeing El Tri at the top of the standings should come as no surprise, knowing that they have not missed a World Cup since being disqualified from the 1990 tournament for using overaged players in a U-20 competition in 1988.

After three matches, they are in good shape to make an eighth successive trip to the finals, with seven points so far.

It has been a busy year for Gerardo Martino and his team, who have played 17 matches, making it to both the CONCACAF Nations League final and then the Gold Cup final, but losing on each occasion to the USA.

Penetrating their well drilled defence is no easy task, with El Tri conceding only one shot on target in each of their opening two qualifiers, while they have maintained 10 clean sheets so far in 2021.

Mexico should be supremely confident going up against the Canucks, who have not beaten them in more than 21 years, scoring a total of 16 goals versus Canada in their previous seven encounters.

However, the last time they faced their neighbours to the north, the Canadians gave them all that they could handle in their Gold Cup semi-final, with the Mexican defence under duress numerous times and El Tri scoring on virtually the last action of the game, with a goal in the ninth minute of injury time, winning 2-1.

Even though they have rarely had issues making it to the World Cup, 2018 was the first time since their 1998 campaign when Mexico were able to finish first in the final stage of qualifying.

Canada manager John Herdman pictured June 24, 2019© Reuters

An inspired performance in Toronto last month has breathed new life into the World Cup hopes of Canada, who are looking to qualify for the finals for the first time since 1986.

After having to fight their way back to earn a draw versus Honduras and the US in their first two games in the Octagon, they were miles ahead of El Salvador in their last match, scoring three goals before the game was even an hour old, while not conceding a single shot on target.

In that match, they had to deal with some very physical Salvadorian players in a chippy affair that tested their composure, but in this upcoming match, Canada will deal with a whole other challenge, and that is the heat and hostility that is Mexico City.

To say that Canada have struggled against the Mexicans would be an understatement, scoring only one goal in their last seven visits to Mexico, with their best result being a 0-0 draw in a 2000 friendly.

After three games, they already have five points, which is only one less than their entire total the last time they made the final stage of World Cup qualifying in the 1998 campaign.

The Canucks failed to earn a single point away from home that time around, but they already have one in these qualifiers, drawing the US 1-1.

John Herdman collected his 22nd victory as the Canadian men's national team manager as he has worked his magic with this team, leading them to 10 wins so far this year.

Mexico World Cup Qualifying - North Central America form:
  • W
  • W
  • D

Mexico form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • D

Canada World Cup Qualifying - North Central America form:
  • D
  • D
  • W

Canada form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • W



Team News

Mexico goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa (13) celebrates with forward Hirving Lozano (22) and defender Luis Rodriguez (21) and forward Alan Pulido (11) after defeating Costa Rica on penalty kicks during the semifinals of the 2021 CONCACAF Nations League soccer s© Reuters

Four different Mexicans have scored in their opening three games, with Alexis Vega getting them on board in their first match while Henry Martin notched the winner, Orbelin Pineda got their only goal from the penalty spot versus Costa Rica and Jesus Corona scored the equaliser against Panama, his first for the national team since the final of the CONCACAF Nations League.

Their captain, Andres Guardado, is second in all-time appearances for his country with 169, behind only Claudio Suarez, who earned 177, while defender Hector Moreno has 117 caps and needs only three more to move into ninth alongside former attacking midfielder Cuauhtemoc Blanco.

Hector Herrera had the winning goal in their last victory against Canada at the Gold Cup, while Rogelio Funes Mori is scoreless in his previous five matches in all competitions after leading the team with three strikes at the Gold Cup.

Canadian captain Atiba Hutchinson got the ball rolling for his team in their last qualifier, scoring six minutes into the match, and if he makes an appearance on Thursday he would equal Julian de Guzman for most international caps for the senior side at 88.

Cyle Larin leads all CONCACAF players with nine goals in the qualifying stages, scoring the equaliser in their first two games in the Octagon, and he only needs two more to tie the record of 22 set by Dwayne De Rosario, while Lucas Cavallini and Jonathan David have 16 goals each in their Canadian careers, putting them one back of Tosaint Ricketts for fifth.

Alphonso Davies is back with the team after missing their match against El Salvador with a minor knee injury, while the strong play of Toronto striker Jacob Shaffelburg at club level has earned him a call-up to the national team, having made only one previous appearance.

Mexico possible starting lineup:
Ocoha; Guardado, Araujo, Montes, Sanchez; Dos Santos, Herrera, Pineda; Corona, Jimenez, Funes Mori

Canada possible starting lineup:
Borjan; Johnston, Vitoria, Miller, Laryea; Hutchinson, Eustaquio, Buchanan; Larin, David, Davies


SM words green background

We say: Mexico 2-0 Canada

This may not be the same Canadian team that we have seen get completely dismantled and overwhelmed when playing under the intense Mexican heat and even more intense crowd but the fact remains that the Mexicans always seem to possess a little more quality across the board than the Canucks.

Given some of their past results against Mexico at the Azteca, a 2-0 defeat would be quite flattering for the Canadians, who have never beaten El Tri in Mexico.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 61.32%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Canada had a probability of 14.61%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.51%) and 2-1 (8.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.8%), while for a Canada win it was 0-1 (6.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Mexico vs Canada

Mexico
75.8%
Draw
11.6%
Canada
12.6%
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Mexico international Hugo Sanchez in action at the World Cup on June 21, 1986.
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