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Ligue 1 | Gameweek 18
Jan 14, 2024 at 2pm UK
Stade Francis-Le Ble
Montpellier

Brest
2 - 0
Montpellier

Magnetti (48'), Le Douaron (90+2')
Magnetti (45')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Chotard (44'), Jullien (57')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Brest and Montpellier HSC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Brest 1-0 Angers
Saturday, January 6 at 2.30pm in Coupe de France
Last Game: Amiens 1-2 Montpellier
Saturday, January 6 at 5pm in Coupe de France

We said: Brest 2-1 Montpellier HSC

Brest's form to finish 2023 was phenomenal, and they have an excellent opportunity to pick up where they left off with a home clash here against a Montpellier side who have flattered to deceive this season. With many players away at AFCON and the Asian Cup too, Montpellier may have a tricky few weeks ahead, and despite the two incredible results on their last two visits here, that trend may end this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brest win with a probability of 53.36%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 22.46%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brest win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.68%) and 2-0 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.5%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 0-1 (6.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brest would win this match.

Result
BrestDrawMontpellier HSC
53.36% (0.249 0.25) 24.18% (-0.061999999999998 -0.06) 22.46% (-0.184 -0.18)
Both teams to score 51.52% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.28% (0.062000000000005 0.06)49.72% (-0.059999999999995 -0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.27% (0.055 0.05)71.73% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05)
Brest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.43% (0.12100000000001 0.12)18.57% (-0.118 -0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.16% (0.2 0.2)49.83% (-0.197 -0.2)
Montpellier HSC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.27% (-0.142 -0.14)36.72% (0.146 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.49% (-0.14 -0.14)73.51% (0.143 0.14)
Score Analysis
    Brest 53.35%
    Montpellier HSC 22.46%
    Draw 24.18%
BrestDrawMontpellier HSC
1-0 @ 11.48% (0.02 0.02)
2-1 @ 9.68% (0.011000000000001 0.01)
2-0 @ 9.67% (0.049999999999999 0.05)
3-1 @ 5.43% (0.027 0.03)
3-0 @ 5.42% (0.048 0.05)
3-2 @ 2.72% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-1 @ 2.29% (0.02 0.02)
4-0 @ 2.28% (0.029 0.03)
4-2 @ 1.15% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 3.23%
Total : 53.35%
1-1 @ 11.5% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
0-0 @ 6.82% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-2 @ 4.85% (-0.013000000000001 -0.01)
3-3 @ 0.91% (-0.003 -0)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 24.18%
0-1 @ 6.83% (-0.044 -0.04)
1-2 @ 5.76% (-0.037 -0.04)
0-2 @ 3.42% (-0.035 -0.03)
1-3 @ 1.92% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.62% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.14% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 1.76%
Total : 22.46%

How you voted: Brest vs Montpellier

Brest
71.4%
Draw
23.8%
Montpellier HSC
4.8%
21
Head to Head
Nov 26, 2023 2pm
Gameweek 13
Montpellier
1-3
Brest
Savanier (51' pen.)
Savanier (24'), Adams (90+6')
Esteve (20' og.), Pereira Lage (64'), Doumbia (90+3')
Lees-Melou (30'), Del Castillo (45')
Feb 12, 2023 2pm
Gameweek 23
Montpellier
3-0
Brest
Herelle (4' og.), Savanier (17' pen.), Wahi (54')
Aug 28, 2022 2pm
Gameweek 4
Brest
0-7
Montpellier

Lees-Melou (50')
Maouassa (6'), Wahi (10', 31'), Khazri (11'), Cozza (25'), Germain (64', 84')
Nordin (62'), Leroy (71')
Apr 3, 2022 2pm
Gameweek 30
Montpellier
1-2
Brest
Savanier (90+3' pen.)
Mavididi (32'), Sakho (33')
Satriano (69'), Honorat (79')
Satriano (7'), Herelle (31'), Chardonnet (66'), Brassier (90+1')
Dec 11, 2021 4pm
Gameweek 18
Brest
0-4
Montpellier

Herelle (62'), Magnetti (84')
Wahi (45+1'), Mavididi (47'), Sambia (60'), Germain (85')
Ferri (89')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CParis Saint-GermainPSG342210281334876
2MonacoMonaco34207768422667
3Brest341710753341961
4Lille341611752341859
5Nice341510940291155
6Lyon34165134955-653
7Lens34149114537851
8Marseille3413111052411150
9Reims34138134247-547
10Rennes341210125346746
11Toulouse341110134246-443
12Montpellier HSCMontpellier341012124348-541
13StrasbourgStrasbourg34109153850-1239
14NantesNantes3496193055-2533
15Le HavreLe Havre34711163445-1132
16Lorient3478194366-2329
17Metz3485213558-2329
RClermont34510192660-3425


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