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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 65.55%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 16.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.87%) and 3-1 (7.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.19%), while for a FC Utrecht win it was 1-2 (4.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
Result | ||
PSV Eindhoven | Draw | FC Utrecht |
65.55% ( 0.17) | 18.4% ( 0.13) | 16.05% ( -0.31) |
Both teams to score 59.99% ( -1.29) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
66.82% ( -1.31) | 33.17% ( 1.31) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
45.07% ( -1.52) | 54.92% ( 1.52) |
PSV Eindhoven Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.5% ( -0.32) | 9.49% ( 0.32) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
68.15% ( -0.76) | 31.85% ( 0.76) |
FC Utrecht Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.29% ( -1.19) | 33.71% ( 1.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.63% ( -1.32) | 70.36% ( 1.31) |
Score Analysis |
PSV Eindhoven | Draw | FC Utrecht |
2-1 @ 9.65% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 8.87% ( 0.36) 3-1 @ 7.57% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 7.54% ( 0.41) 3-0 @ 6.96% ( 0.18) 4-1 @ 4.46% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 4.12% ( -0.16) 4-0 @ 4.1% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 2.42% ( -0.13) 5-1 @ 2.1% ( -0.07) 5-0 @ 1.93% ( -0) 5-2 @ 1.14% ( -0.08) Other @ 4.7% Total : 65.55% | 1-1 @ 8.19% ( 0.19) 2-2 @ 5.25% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 3.2% ( 0.22) 3-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.11) Other @ 0.27% Total : 18.4% | 1-2 @ 4.46% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 3.48% ( 0.13) 2-3 @ 1.9% ( -0.11) 0-2 @ 1.89% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.71% Total : 16.05% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 107 | 19 | 88 | 87 |
2 | Feyenoord | 32 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 85 | 24 | 61 | 78 |
3 | FC Twente | 32 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 63 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 36 | 28 | 61 |
5 | Ajax | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 69 | 59 | 10 | 52 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 62 | 47 | 15 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 49 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 43 |
9 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 36 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 43 | 64 | -21 | 35 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 32 | 9 | 5 | 18 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 28 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 26 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 32 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 31 | 79 | -48 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | 71 | -46 | 2 |
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