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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 47.75%. A win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 29.6% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.11%) and 2-0 (6.55%). The likeliest PEC Zwolle win was 1-2 (7.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Heracles in this match.
Result | ||
Heracles | Draw | PEC Zwolle |
47.75% ( 0.59) | 22.66% ( -0.06) | 29.6% ( -0.52) |
Both teams to score 63.67% ( -0.12) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.16% ( -0.02) | 36.84% ( 0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
40.99% ( -0.02) | 59.02% ( 0.03) |
Heracles Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.17% ( 0.21) | 15.83% ( -0.2) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.99% ( 0.38) | 45.01% ( -0.37) |
PEC Zwolle Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.64% ( -0.33) | 24.36% ( 0.34) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.24% ( -0.47) | 58.76% ( 0.48) |
Score Analysis |
Heracles | Draw | PEC Zwolle |
2-1 @ 9.25% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 7.11% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 6.55% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 5.68% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 4.03% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 4.01% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.62% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 1.86% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.85% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 0.97% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.82% Total : 47.75% | 1-1 @ 10.03% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.53% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 3.86% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.34% Total : 22.65% | 1-2 @ 7.09% ( -0.08) 0-1 @ 5.45% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 3.85% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 3.34% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 3.08% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.05) 1-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 1.09% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.73% Total : 29.6% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 33 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 108 | 20 | 88 | 88 |
2 | Feyenoord | 33 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 88 | 26 | 62 | 81 |
3 | FC Twente | 33 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 67 | 35 | 32 | 66 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 67 | 36 | 31 | 64 |
5 | Ajax | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 72 | 59 | 13 | 55 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 33 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 64 | 50 | 14 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 46 | 44 | 2 | 49 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 46 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 65 | -21 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 32 | 55 | -23 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 33 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 50 | 69 | -19 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 33 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 33 | 86 | -53 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 28 | 72 | -44 | 5 |
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