Arminia Bielefeld and Mainz 05 meet for the second time in the space of five days when they face off in Bundesliga action at the Schuco-Arena on Saturday.
The pair met in the second round of the DFB-Pokal on Tuesday evening, with Mainz coming out on top by a 3-2 scoreline after extra time, but both now turn their attentions back to the league when they go head to head at the weekend.
Match preview
© Reuters
Bielefeld's loss on Tuesday extended their winless run for the season to 10 matches in all competitions, with their 6-3 win over amateur side SpVgg Bayreuth in the first round of the DFB-Pokal being their only victory so far this campaign.
That win arrived in the first competitive match of the season, with nine winless Bundesliga matches following since to leave Die Arminen second from bottom in the table.
Newly-promoted Greuther Furth are the only team positioned below Frank Kramer's men, and also the only other side that remain winless after the opening nine league fixtures during a tough second campaign back in the German top flight.
Last season saw Bielefeld narrowly avoid relegation by just one place and two points, but Kramer will be aware of the need to improve quickly to ensure they do not face the drop come May this time around.
Scoring goals has been the problem in 2021-22 so far, as it was last campaign too, with the five goals scored so far being the joint lowest in the division along with Augsburg.
Masaya Okugawa and Fabian Klos netted in the week to see Bielefeld score more than once in a game for the first time since the first round of the cup in the opening match, but it was still not enough to see off their opponents.
© Reuters
Meanwhile, Mainz's victory on Tuesday saw them record back-to-back victories after they were also victorious last Friday evening against Augsburg in the Bundesliga.
Jonathan Burkardt was in fine form for Die Nullfunfer, netting a brace, along with goals from Stefan Bell and Karim Onisiwo to help their side record a 4-1 win on home soil.
That dominant performance and result put an end to a recent slump of results for Bo Svensson's side, who had lost three successive matches and were winless in their previous four in total.
The drop in form had followed an impressive start to the season, which had followed on from last campaign's miraculous end-of-season form, resulting in Svensson saving the doomed side from an inevitable relegation after his arrival in January.
Last Friday's win, as well as the three wins from the opening four league fixtures, have helped Mainz rise to seventh place in the table, just one place and one point behind RB Leipzig in the final European spot as things stand at the time of writing.
This rise under Svensson has been incredible for a club that expects to struggle at the wrong end of the table year in year out, and the Dane finally has the supporters looking up and dreaming rather than having the constant look over their shoulders like recent years.
Another goal each for Burkardt and Onisiwo on Tuesday, as well as an extra-time winner from Marcus Ingvartsen, mean Mainz head into Saturday's fixture with the psychological advantage over their opponents after the 3-2 cup triumph.
- L
- D
- L
- L
- D
- L
- D
- L
- L
- D
- L
- L
- W
- D
- L
- L
- L
- W
- D
- L
- L
- L
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
A positive note for Bielefeld manager Kramer heading into Saturday is the fact that he has a near fully-fit squad to choose from for the visit of Mainz.
Versatile defender Cedric Brunner appears to be the only doubt, due to a slight knock that saw him miss out in midweek.
After netting two goals in as many games over the past week, Klos is the star man up front for the hosts, with Florian Kruger possibly joining him in attack after impressing in the cup tie.
As for the visitors, they also have just the one injury doubt to contend with on Saturday.
Defender Jeremiah St Juste is expected to be unavailable for a few weeks due to a shoulder injury, with Alexander Hack continuing to deputise for him in the three-man defence.
Captain Moussa Niakhate and midfielder Leandro Barreiro should rejoin the starting 11 after dropping to the bench in midweek.
Striker Adam Szalai has recently returned from injury but he is unlikely to start ahead of Onisiwo and Burkardt due to their goalscoring form over the past week.
Arminia Bielefeld possible starting lineup:
Ortega; Ramos, Pieper, Nilsson; Wimmer, Prietl, Schopf, Laursen; Okugawa; Klos, Kruger
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; Bell, Niakhate, Hack; Widmer, Barreiro, Kohr, Boetius, Martin; Onisiwo, Burkardt
We say: Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 Mainz 05
The struggles in front of goal for the hosts, as well as the solid defensive structure of Mainz, mean that a narrow and tight game is expected on Saturday between these two.
It is difficult to see Bielefeld scoring despite the high-scoring result in midweek, and we can see Mainz continuing their rise up the table by recording another narrow victory here.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 48.34%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Arminia Bielefeld had a probability of 25.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.37%) and 1-2 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.48%), while for an Arminia Bielefeld win it was 1-0 (8.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.
