Preview: Indian Wells: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

In-form Daniil Medvedev aims to be third-time lucky against Carlos Alcaraz in Saturday’s BNP Paribas Open semi-final, having suffered defeats to the Spanish star in Indian Wells in 2023 and 2024.

The Russian dispatched a physically encumbered Jack Draper to reach a fourth consecutive semi-final at the Masters 1000 event, but he must now overcome two-time champion and thus far flawless Alcaraz in 2026 to advance to a third championship match.

Match preview

Alcaraz was always fancied to avoid his earliest Indian Wells exit since 2021, and the Spanish star claimed his 17th straight win of 2026 by beating Cameron Norrie in Thursday’s late quarter-final.

While he was at times far from his best, the 22-year-old still rose to the occasion on the big points and responded to falling 0-2 down early in the second set to secure a 6-3, 6-4 success over the former British No. 1, thus avenging his Paris Masters defeat.

Fresh from supplanting Rafael Nadal (22 years, 313 days) as the youngest player (22 years, 303 days) to advance to five consecutive semi-finals at a Masters 1000 tournament, the two-time Indian Wells champion now aims to reach his third final in Tennis Paradise.

That ambition will require him to defeat Medvedev for a fifth successive match on the ATP Tour and for a third time in the Californian desert, where he previously overcame the Russian in 2023 and 2024.

Another Alcaraz victory will be widely anticipated on Saturday, particularly if the Spanish sensation continues to overpower opponents as effortlessly as he has lately, even when short of his top level; it is a quality he may require to overcome his next foe.

Indeed, Medvedev will be sick of the sight of Alcaraz by now, having suffered title-match defeats to the top seed in consecutive years, preventing the former world No. 1 from claiming the 1000-level event.

Two years after he could win only seven games in the 2024 championship match, the in-form 30-year-old seeks retribution.

There is undeniable cause for optimism, given that no player on tour has won more matches than Medvedev’s 17 this season, and he approaches Saturday’s last-four contest riding the wave of an eight-match winning streak without dropping a set.

The latest of the matches in that sequence saw the world No. 11 end defending champion Draper’s nine-match winning run in Indian Wells, with the British No. 1 having little left in reserve after a gruelling two-hour 35-minute thriller against Novak Djokovic the day before.

While the harsh hindrance call that went against Draper in the 11th game of the second set threatened to mar Medvedev’s win, the Russian’s 6-1, 7-5 success was undeniably deserved.

Now, the 11th seed aims to end a losing run against the tour’s leading player to compete for a first crown in Tennis Paradise after disappointments in 2023 and 2024.

Tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz:

First round: (Bye)

Second round: vs. Grigor Dimitrov 6-2 6-3

Third round: vs. Arthur Rinderknech 6-7(6) 6-3 6-2

Fourth round: vs. Casper Ruud 6-1 7-6(2)

Quarter-final: vs. Cameron Norrie 6-3 6-4

Daniil Medvedev:

First round: (Bye)

Second round: vs. Alejandro Tabilo 6-4 6-2

Third round: vs. Sebastian Baez 6-4 6-0

Fourth round: vs. Alex Michelsen 6-2 6-4

Quarter-final: vs. Jack Draper 6-1 7-5

Head To Head

Beijing (2024) - Semi-final: Alcaraz 7-5 6-3

Wimbledon (2024) - Semi-final: Alcaraz 6-7(1) 6-3 6-4 6-4

Indian Wells Masters (2024) - Final: Alcaraz 7-6(5) 6-1

ATP Finals (2023) - Round Robin: Alcaraz 6-4 6-4

US Open (2023) - Semi-final: Medvedev 7-6(3) 6-1 3-6 6-3

Wimbledon (2023) - Semi-final: Alcaraz 6-3 6-3 6-3

Indian Wells Masters (2023) - Final: Alcaraz 6-3 6-2

Wimbledon (2021) - Second round: Medvedev 6-4 6-1 6-2

Although they split their first four meetings on the ATP Tour, Alcaraz has since secured four consecutive victories over his Russian rival to open a 6-2 lead in their head-to-head.

The former world No. 1 has interestingly taken just one set from a possible 10 played during that run: in their Wimbledon semi-final two years ago, before the 22-year-old went on to win in four.

Medvedev has barely laid a glove on the top seed in their previous meetings in Indian Wells, taking five games in the 2023 final defeat and seven in the rematch the following year, underlining the two-time champion’s superiority.

The Russian’s only hard-court victory over the seven-time Grand Slam champion came at the 2023 US Open, where he produced an impressive performance to beat the Spaniard in four and prevent the Djokovic-Alcaraz final many had anticipated.

Now, he hopes to draw on that performance to snap a three-match losing run on hard courts (four overall) against the tour’s leading player.

We say: Alcaraz to win in three sets

Alcaraz is the favourite against anyone he faces these days, and Medvedev is no different, despite the Russian’s outstanding start to the year (17-3), which has already yielded two titles.

While Medvedev is fancied to nick a set in Saturday’s semi-final, two losses in Indian Wells to his Spanish opponent should become three, with the top seed expected to progress to Sunday’s championship match against Alexander Zverev or Jannik Sinner to play for his third BNP Paribas Open crown.