Preview: Australian Open: Jessica Pegula vs. Elena Rybakina - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Like the other Australian Open semi-finalists — Aryna Sabalenka and Elina Svitolina — Jessica Pegula and Elena Rybakina are yet to drop a set ahead of Thursday’s last-four contest.

While Rybakina has effectively breezed through the draw, defeating Career Grand Slam-chasing Iga Swiatek on Wednesday, the world No. 5 faces another in-form opponent who has beaten two top-10 players en route to a maiden last-four appearance at Melbourne Park.

Match preview

Proving that her fourth-round victory over defending champion and compatriot Madison Keys was no fluke, Pegula secured an impressive win against Amanda Anisimova on Wednesday to reach the last four Down Under for the first time.

Formerly a three-time quarter-finalist in consecutive years between 2021 and 2023, the American then failed to reach the second week in her next two appearances at the Major, losing to Clara Burel in the second round in 2024 and Olga Danilovic 12 months ago — results that left many wondering whether she could ever make another last-eight showing at Melbourne Park.

However, she has broken new ground at the first Slam of the year, improving to 20-6 overall in Melbourne after dispatching opponents along the way, even if there was some resistance from Anisimova on Wednesday.

After relatively straightforward straight-sets wins across the opening four rounds, the 31-year-old found herself trailing 3-5 in the second, only to refocus against a restless compatriot before taking the eventual tie-break.

That 6-2, 7-6(1) victory in one hour and 35 minutes marks the longest time Pegula has spent on court at this tournament, and the world No. 6 now seeks to reach another Major final, following her run to the US Open showpiece in 2024.

Facing Rybakina in this form will pose obvious challenges for the American, especially if the Kazakhstani’s serve is as commanding as it was against Swiatek.

The 11-time WTA champion fired 11 aces during the one-hour 35-minute contest, totalling 26 winners to Swiatek’s 10, while making fewer unforced errors (19) than the Pole’s 25.

Following that victory, the 26-year-old secured another top-10 win to improve to 12-5 over the past 52 weeks and 8-0 against such opponents since falling to Sabalenka in Wuhan three months ago.

During this ongoing run, Rybakina has defeated Swiatek twice and the Belarusian once, while Thursday’s semi-final opponent was not left out in Riyadh, where Rybakina went five matches unbeaten to claim the year-end event.

In completed matches, the one-time Slam champion has an 18-1 record heading into a second semi-final at this tournament, with only Karolina Muchova (Brisbane, 2025) inflicting her sole loss in 19 matches.

That stands the 2023 Australian Open runner-up in good stead as she bids to overcome another semi-final opponent and reach the title match for the second time.

Rybakina’s last run to this stage saw her take down Victoria Azarenka in two tight sets, and a repeat would be welcome as she seeks to claim a ninth consecutive top-10 win and set up Saturday’s title match against Sabalenka or Svitolina.

Tournament so far

Jessica Pegula:

First round: vs. Anastasia Zakharova 6-2 6-1

Second round: vs. McCartney Kessler 6-0 6-2

Third round: vs. Oksana Selekhmeteva 6-3 6-2

Round of 16: vs. Madison Keys 6-3 6-4

Quarter-final: vs. Amanda Anisimova 6-2 7-6(1)

Elena Rybakina:

First round: vs. Kaja Juvan 6-4 6-3

Second round: vs. Varvara Gracheva 7-5 6-2

Third round: vs. Tereza Valentova 6-2 6-3

Round of 16: vs. Elise Mertens 6-1 6-3

Quarter-final: vs. Iga Swiatek 7-5 6-1

Head To Head

WTA Finals (2025) - Semi-final: Rybakina 4-6 6-4 6-3

Billie Jean King Cup (2025) - Group Stage: Rybakina 6-4 6-1

WTA Finals (2023) - Round Robin: Pegula 7-5 6-2

Miami (2023) - Semi-final: Rybakina 7-6(3) 6-4

Guadalajara (2022) - Second Round: Pegula 2-6 6-3 7-6(8)

Miami (2022) - Third Round: Pegula 6-3 6-4

Tied at 3–3 on the women’s tour, Pegula and Rybakina are set to face off for the seventh time, with the winner to take a 4–3 lead in their head-to-head.

Strikingly, however, the American has lost their last two encounters, having claimed three victories in their first four meetings.

The most recent defeat to the one-time Slam champion came in the semi-finals of the WTA Finals in Riyadh, marking one of Rybakina’s eight consecutive wins over top-10 opponents.

Fresh from improving to 12–5 against elite players over the past 52 weeks, the former world No. 3 now bids to record a 13th victory over a top-10 rival in the last 12 months.

We say: Rybakina to win in three sets

While it is satisfying to see Pegula break through her quarter-final ceiling in Melbourne, Rybakina is currently playing with a level of clinical aggression that makes her look nearly untouchable.

Consequently, the in-form former Grand Slam champion is backed to take down the American and advance to another title match Down Under.