Preview: Australian Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Less than 48 hours after winning titanic five-set semi-finals, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic will battle on Rod Laver Arena on Sunday for the Australian Open title.

The championship match is incredibly rich in narrative: Djokovic, the oldest man to reach an Aussie Open final, is bidding to claim a historic 25th major that has hitherto eluded him, while the Spanish sensation seeks to become the youngest player to complete a career Grand Slam.

Match preview

Even at 38, Djokovic proved on Friday just why he is widely regarded as the greatest player ever to hold a tennis racquet, defeating Jannik Sinner in five thrilling sets to end a losing sequence against the Italian.

It was meant to be business as usual on Rod Laver Arena: the 24-time Slam champion huffing and puffing as the younger, two-time Australian Open champion gave him the run-around en route to another title match with friendly rival Alcaraz.

However, the 10-time Australian Open champion produced a vintage performance over four hours and nine minutes to defeat his new nemesis 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, responding to losing the first and third sets to snap the Italian No. 1’s 19-match winning streak Down Under and advance to Sunday’s final.

Djokovic instructively stated in his on-court interview that he needed to play differently to avoid falling to a sixth defeat in this match-up, and that much was obvious as he unleashed several powerful forehands that made Sinner uncomfortable, while saving a staggering 16 of 18 break-point chances that the world No. 2 created.

While the immediate reaction would be to criticise the second seed for failing to convert an abundance of opportunities to stun the veteran, Djokovic landing first serves in nearly every instance gave the four-time Slam champion little chance to hurt him.

In the end, a fatigued 38-year-old was pleased to put five consecutive losses to Sinner behind him as he produced his finest showing since defeating Alcaraz in last year’s quarter-final, underlining that, on his day, he still has what it takes to compete despite his advanced years.

Now into his first Grand Slam final since the 2024 Wimbledon Championships, does the GOAT have one more top showing in him to claim an elusive 25th Slam?

That question will be answered on Sunday, as he faces the man who ended his winning run in championship matches at Wimbledon in 2023 before dismantling the Serbian in straight sets 12 months later.

Alcaraz enters Sunday’s final aiming to deny Djokovic his historic Slam but, more importantly, seeking to make history in Melbourne, where he competes in his maiden championship match.

That outcome seemed uncertain after physical issues in the third set left the 22-year-old barely mobile and playing within himself, as Alexander Zverev won sets three and four and served for the match at 5-4, only for the never-say-die six-time Grand Slam champion to break back and reel off two more games to secure a breathtaking 6-4, 7-6(5), 6-7(3), 6-7(4), 7-5 triumph.

That five-hour, 27-minute victory marked Alcaraz’s 12th in a row in five-set matches, extending a four-year stretch of wins in such contests since losing to Matteo Berrettini Down Under in the third round in 2022.

Having not dropped a set before his thrilling battle with Zverev, the Spaniard, who seemingly looked set to retire injured in Friday’s semi-final, found a second wind and reached Sunday’s title match, where he will compete for the career Grand Slam.

Despite his rivalry with Sinner producing several electric contests, in a sense it feels fitting that the one man standing between the 22-year-old and adding the Australian Open to his US Open, Wimbledon and French Open titles is the man with 10 triumphs in Melbourne and the only player to achieve a triple career Grand Slam.

Sunday’s championship match should be all shades of fun and thrill, and may the better man win.

Tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz:

First round: vs. Adam Walton 6-3 7-6[2] 6-2

Second round: vs. Yannick Hanfmann 7-6[4] 6-3 6-2

Third round: vs. Corentin Moutet 6-2 6-4 6-1

Round of 16: vs. Tommy Paul 7-6[6] 6-4 7-5

Quarter-final: vs. Alex de Minaur 7-5 6-2 6-1

Semi-final: vs. Alexander Zverev 6-4 7-6(5) 6-7(3) 6-7(4) 7-5

Novak Djokovic:

First round: vs. Pedro Martinez 6-3 6-2 6-2

Second round: vs. Francesco Maestrelli 6-3 6-2 6-2

Third round: vs. Botic van de Zandschulp 6-3 6-4 7-6[4]

Round of 16: vs. Jakub Mensik (W/O)

Quarter-final: vs. Lorenzo Musetti 4-6 3-6 3-1 (ret)

Semi-final: vs. Jannik Sinner 3-6 6-3 4-6 6-4 6-4

Head To Head

US Open (2025) - Semi-final: Alcaraz 6-4 7-6(4) 6-2

Australian Open (2025) - Quarter-final: Djokovic 4-6 6-4 6-3 6-4

Paris Olympics (2024) - Final: Djokovic 7-6(3) 7-6(2)

Wimbledon (2024) - Final: Alcaraz 6-2 6-2 7-6(4)

ATP Finals (2023) - Semi-final: Djokovic 6-3 6-2

Cincinnati Masters (2023) - Final: Djokovic 5-7 7-6(7) 7-6(4)

Wimbledon (2023) - Final: Alcaraz 1-6 7-6(6) 6-1 3-6 6-4

French Open (2023) - Semi-final: Djokovic 6-3 5-7 6-1 6-1

Madrid Masters (2022) - Semi-final: Alcaraz 6-7(5) 7-5 7-6(5)

Djokovic knows how to beat Alcaraz, highlighted by his 5-4 advantage in their head-to-head.

Ahead of their 10th meeting on the ATP Tour, Djokovic heads into Sunday mindful of his victory over Alcaraz 12 months ago, when he overturned a first-set loss to outlast the Spaniard in four.

However, the Spaniard got his revenge in Flushing several months ago, getting the better of the veteran after losses at the Paris Olympics and in Australia to mark his first Slam success over the Serb outside Wimbledon.

Both men are tied at 2-2 ahead of their fifth championship match, although Djokovic won their last meeting for a title at the 2024 Olympics, saving all six break-point chances Alcaraz created on the Philippe-Chatrier clay.

Alcaraz’s only Grand Slam defeat in the last 52 weeks came at Wimbledon, where he lost his winning run in Slam title matches (then 5-0, now 6-1), and he enters Sunday’s match holding a 26-1 record at the leading events since losing to Djokovic at last year’s Australian Open.

We say: Alcaraz to win in four sets

Djokovic outlasting Sinner sent shockwaves through the men’s draw, as the Serbian’s victory over the finest player on hard courts in Melbourne propelled the veteran into his 11th Australian Open final.

Carrying a 10-match winning streak in championship matches Down Under into Sunday’s decider, the 24-time Slam champion will undoubtedly relish another opportunity against an opponent who looked to be struggling physically against Zverev.

However, if healthy after struggling with cramps in the semis, Alcaraz is definitely the favourite to go the distance against the Serb, who must be prepared for another marathon if he is to defeat the top seed, who holds the physical edge.

Indeed, the Spaniard’s variety and relentless power from the baseline will likely force Djokovic into defensive positions he may struggle to sustain after Friday’s exertions.

By attacking the second serve and keeping Djokovic on the move, Alcaraz is tipped to secure his maiden Melbourne title and complete a historic career Grand Slam.