Preview: Indian Wells: Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

A new BNP Paribas Open champion will be crowned on Sunday when Daniil Medvedev takes on Jannik Sinner, aiming to be third-time lucky at Indian Wells.

The Russian star, a two-time finalist, has taken down defending champion Jack Draper and two-time victor Carlos Alcaraz to reach the championship match, where first-time title hopeful Sinner awaits in the first Masters 1000 final of 2026.

Match preview

Medvedev had lost four matches on the trot against Alcaraz heading into the pair’s ninth encounter on the ATP Tour, and that unwanted sequence was expected to become five despite his strong run of results.

The Russian had lost nine of the previous 10 sets against the world No. 1 and was not given a prayer ahead of Saturday’s semi-final at Indian Wells, where he had been beaten in the 2023 and 2024 title matches.

This time, however, the world No. 11 – who returns to the elite 10 next week – played aggressively and sustained that level to end the Spanish sensation’s winning start to 2026, becoming the one in 16–1.

The upshot of Saturday’s stunning 6-3 7-6(3) victory over the top seed is an improved season record of 18–3, and he is riding the wave of a nine-match winning streak since exiting early in Doha.

Since falling to Stefanos Tsitsipas at the ATP 500 tournament in the Middle East, Medvedev has notched nine consecutive wins en route to the title in Dubai and a third title match at the first Masters 1000 event in Tennis Paradise, and he now aims to secure a 10th by defeating arguably the finest player on hard courts.

Medvedev is no slouch on this surface either, as evidenced by his 239 wins since 2020, a tally that surpasses every player on the ATP Tour, with Sunday’s opponent on 231 hard-court victories heading into the championship match.

The 23-time ATP champion has already beaten the tournament’s reigning champion and world No. 1; now he bids to take down a hungry former world No. 1, seeking a maiden title in the Californian desert.

Sinner, like Medvedev, has yet to drop a set in Tennis Paradise, where he has defeated two Next Gen champions and one top-five opponent to make it this far.

Like his Russian opponent, the Italian had been unsuccessful in the desert after twice falling in the semi-finals to friendly rival Alcaraz; however, he took full advantage of not facing his nemesis this time.

Joao Fonseca has, surprisingly, provided the most resistance during the 24-year-old’s winning streak in the desert, with the Brazilian teenager forcing the former world No. 1 to two tie-breaks, ultimately claimed by the second seed.

Sinner has since dispatched Learner Tien and world No. 4 Alexander Zverev in the quarter-finals and semi-finals, dropping three and six games respectively.

The latter 6-2 6-4 success over Zverev was his sixth consecutive win over the German on tour, dropping only two sets during that period, and he now seeks a fourth straight triumph over Sunday’s opponent after wins at the US Open, Shanghai and the ATP Finals, all in 2024.

Having secured every hard-court title at Grand Slam and Masters 1000 level except the crown at Indian Wells, Sinner now bids to claim the one event that has previously eluded him.

No player has achieved the feat before turning 30, but Sinner – still only 24 – bids to reign supreme in the desert to effectively complete hard-court tennis.

Tournament so far

Daniil Medvedev:

First round: (Bye)

Second round: vs. Alejandro Tabilo 6-4 6-2

Third round: vs. Sebastian Baez 6-4 6-0

Fourth round: vs. Alex Michelsen 6-2 6-4

Quarter-final: vs. Jack Draper 6-1 7-5

Semi-final: vs. Carlos Alcaraz 6-3 7-6(3)

Jannik Sinner:

First round: (Bye)

Second round: vs. Dalibor Svrcina 6-1 6-1

Third round: vs. Denis Shapovalov 6-3 6-2

Fourth round: vs. Joao Fonseca 7-6(6) 7-6(4)

Quarter-final: vs. Learner Tien 6-1 6-2

Semi-final: vs. Alexander Zverev 6-2 6-4

Head To Head

ATP Finals (2024) - Round Robin: Sinner 6-3 6-4

Shanghai Masters (2024) - Quarter-final: Sinner 6-1 6-4

US Open (2024) - Quarter-final: Sinner 6-2 1-6 6-1 6-4

Wimbledon (2024) - Quarter-final: Medvedev 6-7(7) 6-4 7-6(4) 2-6 6-3

Miami Masters (2024) - Semi-final: Sinner 6-1 6-2

Australian Open (2024) - Final: Sinner 3-6 3-6 6-4 6-4 6-3

ATP Finals (2023) - Semi-final: Sinner 6-3 6-7(4) 6-1

Vienna (2023) - Final: Sinner 7-6(7) 4-6 6-3

Beijing (2023) - Final: Sinner 7-6(2) 7-6(2)

Miami Masters (2023) - Final: Medvedev 7-5 6-3

Rotterdam (2023) - Final: Medvedev 5-7 6-2 6-2

Vienna (2022) - Quarter-final: Medvedev 6-4 6-2

ATP Finals (2021) - Round Robin: Medvedev 6-0 6-7(5) 7-6(8)

Marseille (2021) - Quarter-final: Medvedev 6-2 6-4

Marseille (2020) - Round of 16: Medvedev 1-6 6-1 6-2

While Sinner leads his head-to-head with Medvedev 8–7, both players have enjoyed an intriguing rivalry.

The Russian won the pair’s first six meetings on tour, but Sinner has secured eight of the following nine matchups, with his only defeat coming at Wimbledon in 2024, when he fell ill during their quarter-final.

That marked the 30-year-old’s last success over the Italian, who has won three matches in a row against the 23-time titlist, dropping just one set at the US Open two years ago.

Most of their tussles have come on hard courts, with Sunday’s final their 15th such encounter; the second seed leads 8–6, with all his victories coming in back-to-back matches after losing his first six meetings with Medvedev on the surface.

Their meeting at Indian Wells will be their sixth championship match, with Medvedev trailing 2–3 after losing the last three, the latter of which was a chastening Australian Open final loss, which Sinner won from two sets down.

The Italian enters Sunday’s title match having not suffered defeat in a final to anyone not named Alcaraz since falling to Novak Djokovic at the 2023 ATP Finals, and he seeks to keep that run going at Medvedev’s expense.

We say: Medvedev to win in three sets

Alcaraz’s form heading into Indian Wells was on a different level, but Medvedev’s aggression in attack and his court coverage in defence have seen him reach another final in the Californian desert.

Sinner may be an elite performer on this surface, but it is hard to back anyone else right now, with the two-time BNP Paribas Open finalist playing at this level.

Having defeated an admittedly spent Draper and then followed that up with a controlled, aggressive performance to beat Alcaraz, Medvedev is backed for success at Indian Wells on Sunday, as he finally claims the crown that has twice previously eluded him.