Preview: Australian Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

In a rematch of the 2023 final, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will face off at Rod Laver Arena on Saturday for the women’s title.

Both players are yet to drop a set en route to the final, emulating Venus and Serena Williams’s Wimbledon 2008 feat and becoming the first women to do so Down Under since Justine Henin and Kim Clijsters in 2004.

Match preview

Was another final ever really in doubt once Sabalenka stepped onto court on Thursday to take on first-time Australian Open semi-finalist Elina Svitolina in Melbourne?

The Belarusian’s 2023 run to the title match marked her maiden Grand Slam final, and she has since featured in six more, five of which have been on hard courts, as she now contests a fourth consecutive final in Australia.

Sabalenka is arguably the outstanding player on this surface, underlined by her runs to the last six Major title matches since that 2023 breakthrough; however, her record in finals remains her Achilles heel.

The 27-year-old reached nine finals in 2025 but could only claim four titles, losing five, including to Madison Keys 12 months ago when she was chasing a third consecutive crown Down Under.

While the undisputed world No. 1 advanced to two more Slam finals, her only success came in New York, having suffered further disappointment at the French Open against Coco Gauff.

Last year’s mixed results in title matches highlight her broader difficulties in finals, reflected in a career record of 22–19, and it will be fascinating to see whether the ‘Good’ or ‘Bad’ Sabalenka appears on Saturday.

Rybakina enters this weekend’s title match aiming to right the wrongs of three years ago, when she lost to the Belarusian in three sets despite taking the opener.

The 26-year-old returns this time arguably in superior form, underlined by a stunning run since losing to Sabalenka in Wuhan last October.

Only Karolína Muchova has beaten the former world No. 3 since that defeat to Sabalenka, with a 19–1 win–loss record underlining the Kazakhstani’s consistency since the back end of the 2025 season.

Many of those victories have come against the very best on the women’s tour, with Thursday’s win over Jessica Pegula following her quarter-final success against Iga Swiatek.

Those results have extended Rybakina’s winning streak against top-10 opponents to nine, and the world No. 5 will look to make it 10 by defeating Sabalenka Down Under.

Having recently beaten the top seed at the WTA Finals in Riyadh, the 2022 Wimbledon champion will back herself in another title match against the world No. 1 as she seeks to atone for that 2023 defeat.

Tournament so far

Aryna Sabalenka:

First round: vs. Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah 6-4 6-1

Second round: vs. Zhuoxuan Bai 6-3 6-1

Third round: vs. Anastasia Potapova 7-6(4) 7-6(7)

Round of 16: vs. Victoria Mboko 6-1 7-6(1)

Quarter-final: vs. Iva Jovic 6-3 6-0

Semi-final: vs. Elina Svitolina 6-2 6-3

Elena Rybakina:

First round: vs. Kaja Juvan 6-4 6-3

Second round: vs. Varvara Gracheva 7-5 6-2

Third round: vs. Tereza Valentova 6-2 6-3

Round of 16: vs. Elise Mertens 6-1 6-3

Quarter-final: vs. Iga Swiatek 7-5 6-1

Semi-final:

vs. Jessica Pegula 6-3 7-6[7]

Head To Head

WTA Finals (2025) - Final: Rybakina 6-3 7-6(0)

Wuhan (2025) - Quarter-final: Sabalenka 6-3 6-3

Cincinnati (2025) - Quarter-final: Rybakina 6-1 6-4

Berlin (2025) - Quarter-final: Sabalenka 7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(6)

WTA Finals (2024) - Round Robin: Rybakina 6-4 3-6 6-1

Madrid (2024) - Semi-final: Sabalenka 1-6 7-5 7-6(5)

Brisbane (2024) - Final: Rybakina 6-0 6-3

WTA Finals (2023) - Round Robin: Sabalenka 6-2 3-6 6-3

Beijing (2023) - Quarter-finals: Rybakina 7-5 6-2

Indian Wells (2023) - Final: Rybakina 7-6(11) 6-4

Australian Open (2023) - Final: Sabalenka 4-6 6-3 6-4

Wimbledon (2021) - Fourth round: Sabalenka 6-3 4-6 6-3

Abu Dhabi (2021) - Quarter-finals: Sabalenka 6-4 4-6 6-3

Wuhan (2019) - Quarter-finals: Sabalenka 6-3 1-6 6-1

Sabalenka holds an 8-6 record over Rybakina heading into their 15th meeting on the women’s tour.

A closer look at their previous encounters shows that the Belarusian claimed four consecutive wins in a one-sided start, but has taken just four of the subsequent 10, edged 6–4 in that span by the 2022 Wimbledon champion.

They split their 2025 meetings 2-2, with Rybakina winning the most recent clash in Riyadh to close out last season.

Notably, that victory at the WTA Finals marked the Kazakh’s third consecutive success in a title match against the No. 1 seed since losing the Australian Open final in 2023: Rybakina has triumphed in Indian Wells (2023), Brisbane (2024) and Riyadh (2025).

In contrast to Sabalenka, whose record in title matches over the last 52 weeks (4–5) and overall (22–19) is mixed, Rybakina is 3–0 in finals over the last 52 weeks (11–11 overall), having defeated Liudmila Samsonova in Strasbourg, Ekaterina Alexandrova in Ningbo and Sabalenka at the year-end finals, and she now seeks a fourth consecutive triumph.

We say: Rybakina to win in three sets

Saturday’s title match is rich in narrative, with Sabalenka seeking another triumph in Melbourne after last year’s defeat to Keys and Rybakina aiming to avenge her 2023 loss to the Belarusian.

Both women have been almost unstoppable en route to the final, with neither dropping a set in their six victories leading up to their fifth meeting in a championship match.

While Saturday’s contest could go either way, Rybakina is tipped to edge a fourth consecutive final against Sabalenka, ending the Belarusian’s 11-match winning streak in 2026 and denying the top seed in Melbourne for the second year running.