Preview: Australian Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elina Svitolina - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Aryna Sabalenka and Elina Svitolina are yet to drop a set en route to Thursday’s semi-final tussle at the Australian Open.

Svitolina’s run has arguably been more impressive than the world No. 1’s, considering that the Ukrainian has defeated two top-10 opponents ahead of her seventh meeting with the leading seed.

Match preview

The finest woman on hard courts making another semi-final Down Under was always anticipated pre-tournament, and the top seed has reached the last four in Melbourne for the fourth consecutive year.

Not since she lost to Kaia Kanepi in the fourth round in 2022 has Sabalenka exited before the last four, and the two-time Aussie Open champion advancing to three consecutive title matches sends ominous signs to Svitolina ahead of Thursday’s tussle.

Having reached the semi-final at the 2022 US Open, the Belarusian star has made the final of the next six hard-court Slams, highlighting her dominance on the surface.

The world No. 1’s feat of making the semi-finals in Melbourne without dropping a set has seen the four-time Grand Slam champion emulate Serena Williams (2016) and Ashleigh Barty (2022) as the leading seeds in the past decade to advance to the last four without losing a set.

Both women progressed to the final in those years, and while Williams was defeated by Angelique Kerber in 2016, making a fourth consecutive title match at this Slam is the bare minimum requirement for the 27-year-old, who holds a 33-6 career record at the tournament.

That aspiration will undeniably be tested by a motivated Svitolina, who finally made the Aussie Open semi-final at the 13th time of asking.

After three previous runs to the quarter-final in 2018, 2019 and 12 months ago, only to lose to Elise Mertens, Naomi Osaka and Madison Keys, the Ukrainian No. 1 would not be denied on the fourth try, humiliating Coco Gauff in 59 minutes.

The 31-year-old’s 6-1, 6-2 victory over the American No. 1 marked another success over a top-10 player following a fourth-round triumph over teenage sensation Mirra Andreeva, demonstrating the world No. 12’s ongoing big-match prowess.

Tuesday’s victory was the 31-year-old’s 34th at the Australian Open, surpassing her 33 wins at the French Open, and she seeks a 35th at the expense of the leading seed to upset another elite player.

While she is the undeniable underdog, the second-oldest player to reach a first Aussie Open semi-final — after Mirjana Lucic-Baroni in 2017 — bids to leverage her momentum to take down the best player on hard courts on the women’s tour to reach a maiden title match at this level.

Tournament so far

Aryna Sabalenka:

First round: vs. Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah 6-4 6-1

Second round: vs. Zhuoxuan Bai 6-3 6-1

Third round: vs. Anastasia Potapova 7-6(4) 7-6(7)

Round of 16: vs. Victoria Mboko 6-1 7-6(1)

Quarter-final: vs. Iva Jovic 6-3 6-0

Elina Svitolina:

First round: vs. Cristina Bucsa 6-4 6-1

Second round: vs. Linda Klimovicova 7-5 6-1

Third round: vs. Diana Shnaider 7-6(4) 6-3

Round of 16: vs. Mirra Andreeva 6-2 6-4

Quarter-final: vs. Coco Gauff 6-1 6-2

Head To Head

Madrid (2025) - Semi-final: Sabalenka 6-3 7-5

Cincinnati (2024) - Round of 16: Sabalenka 7-5 6-2

Rome (2024) - Round of 16: Sabalenka 4-6 6-1 7-6(7)

Roland Garros (2023) - Quarter-final: Sabalenka 6-4 6-4

Strasbourg (2020) - Semi-final: Svitolina 6-2 4-6 6-4

Wuhan (2018) - Round of 32: Sabalenka 6-4 2-6 6-1

Having secured one win each to begin their rivalry, Sabalenka has claimed four in a row to open a 5-1 advantage over Svitolina in their head-to-head.

The Belarusian has dropped just one set across those four successes — a last-16 contest in Rome two years ago — but has won the last two — Cincinnati (2024) and Madrid (2025) — in straight sets.

Although they have previously faced off on the dirt of Roland-Garros in 2023, both women meet in a hard-court Major for the first time.

Sabalenka leads 2-0 on the surface, claiming their first meeting in Wuhan (2018) and in Cincinnati two years ago in one hour and 19 minutes.

We say: Sabalenka to win in two sets

Following previous semi-final losses to Simona Halep at Wimbledon (2019), Williams at the US Open (2019) and Marketa Vondrousova at the Championships (2023), Svitolina seeks an upset over the No. 1 seed to reach a maiden Grand Slam final.

However, it is objectively hard to back anyone other than the top seed and most dominant player on hard courts on Thursday, and Sabalenka is tipped to reach a fourth consecutive title match in Melbourne, where she will look to correct last year’s Madison Keys disappointment.