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Six Nations | Group Stage
Feb 11, 2023 at 4.45pm UK
 
Scotland
35-7
Wales
Turner (30'), Steyn (51', 58'), Kinghorn (71'), Fagerson (79')
FT
Owens (34')

Preview: Scotland vs. Wales - prediction, team news, head to head

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Six Nations clash between Scotland and Wales, including predictions, team news and head-to-head record.

Scotland will be looking to finally back up an opening-weekend Six Nations win when they welcome Warren Gatland's Wales to Murrayfield on Saturday.

Gregor Townsend's men secured another famous Calcutta Cup victory over England at Twickenham last time out, whereas Wales were comfortably beaten at home by tournament favourites Ireland.


Match preview

Scotland's Duhan van der Merwe before scoring their second try on February 4, 2023© Reuters

It is still too early to say that beating England is becoming a familiar feeling for Scotland, but they are certainly becoming more accustomed to it having retained the Calcutta Cup yet again at Twickenham last weekend.

For years, England's dominance in the fixture was near-total, but some dazzling, dancing Duhan van der Merwe magic helped Scotland to a third victory in a row over the auld enemy for the first time since the early 1970s on Six Nations opening weekend.

It was also the first time that they had won consecutive away games against England since 1909 - and the first time ever at Twickenham - but focus will have quickly switched to what comes next as they look to banish another unwanted long-standing record.

Townsend will not need telling that his side recorded memorable wins over England on the opening weekend in both 2021 and 2022 as well, only to then lose to Wales one week later on both occasions.

Indeed, the last time Scotland opened a Five or Six Nations campaign with back-to-back wins was 1996, and that is something they have managed just six times in total across the last 70 years.

On three of the last five occasions they have won their opener they have been beaten by Wales in week two, and if they can finally get that monkey off their back this weekend then it would send them into back-to-back games against France and Ireland full of confidence after the fallow week.

Scotland will not always be able to rely on a moment of genius like Van der Merwe conjured up at Twickenham, though, and if they do have their sights set on a possible title challenge this year then they will need to improve some underlying figures, having only entered England's 22 seven times last weekend.

While Townsend's side were clinical when they got there, averaging the most points per 22 entry of any nation on the opening weekend, they will need to show more sustained attacking pressure if they are to make the jump up to the top half of the Six Nations table.

Wales head coach Warren Gatland before the match on February 4, 2023© Reuters

Improvement will also be the name of the game for Wales, with the most glaring area in need of addressing being their first-half performance against Ireland.

Andy Farrell's side did not even have to be at their best to effectively win the match inside the opening half an hour in Cardiff, surging into a 14-0 lead inside 10 minutes and extending that to 27-3 before the 30-minute mark.

Wales improved in the second half but ultimately never threatened to reel Ireland in, and Josh van der Flier's bonus-point try ultimately condemned Gatland's men to their heaviest home defeat against the Irish for 22 years.

While Scotland averaged more points per visit to the 22 than any other side last weekend, Wales were at the opposite end of the scale with comfortably the worst average - 0.91 points per entry, whereas every other team averaged over two.

The Welsh wastefulness would have no doubt angered Gatland, but they did create chances against the world's top-ranked side and, if they are able to become more clinical, they could become a force to be reckoned with once again.

Wales are currently on a run of just two wins in their last 11 matches since beating Scotland in this fixture last year, but they recovered from a similar run - three wins from 12 - to win the Six Nations in 2021, and with the most successful coach in the competition's history now back at the helm, fans will be hoping for a similarly remarkable turnaround starting this weekend.

Gatland won all 10 of his meetings with Scotland during his first stint in charge of Wales and so the trip to Edinburgh will hold no fear for him.

However, whether his players will travel so confidently is another matter given that Wales have won just three of their last 12 away games - although that does include their memorable one-point come-from-behind victory on their last visit to Murrayfield two years ago.

Scotland Six Nations form:

  • W


Wales Six Nations form:

  • L


Team News

Scotland head coach Gregor Townsend before the match on November 13, 2022© Reuters

Townsend has made just one change to his Scottish XV for Saturday's match, with Zander Fagerson having recovered from a hamstring injury to start at prop.

WP Nel drops to the bench as a result, while Simon Berghan is left out of the squad entirely in the only personnel change to the 23.

That means that there is still no place for Hamish Watson, despite his return for Edinburgh before the Six Nations began.

For Wales, Gatland has decided to ring the changes in the pack, with former captain and the most-capped player in international rugby history Alun Wyn Jones among those left out of the squad entirely.

Another experienced campaigner in Justin Tipuric has also been dropped from the 23, while Taulupe Faletau has to settle for a place on the bench.

Captain Ken Owens, Adam Beard and Jac Morgan are the only forwards to retain their places, and the latter will make up an inexperienced back row alongside Christ Tshiunza and Tommy Reffell, a trio that has won just 20 caps between them.

Reffell and Tshiunza will join lock Dafydd Jenkins in earning their first Wales starts, while Wyn Jones and Dillon Lewis both return at prop in place of Gareth Thomas and Tomas Francis.

By contrast, the backline remains unchanged for Gatland, including centurions Dan Biggar and George North, and week one try-scorer Liam Williams.

Scotland starting lineup:
15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Kyle Steyn, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Sione Tuipulotu, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ben White; 1 Pierre Schoeman, 2 George Turner, 3 Zander Fagerson, 4 Richie Gray, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 6 Jamie Ritchie (c), 7 Luke Crosbie, 8 Matt Fagerson

Replacements:
16 Fraser Brown, 17 Jamie Bhatti, 18 WP Nel, 19 Jonny Gray, 20 Jack Dempsey, 21 George Horne, 22 Blair Kinghorn, 23 Chris Harris

Wales starting lineup:
15 Liam Williams, 14 Josh Adams, 13 George North, 12 Joe Hawkins, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Tomos Williams; 1 Wyn Jones, 2 Ken Owens (c), 3 Dillon Lewis, 4 Dafydd Jenkins, 5 Adam Beard, 6 Christ Tshiunza, 7 Tommy Reffell, 8 Jac Morgan

Replacements:
16 Scott Baldwin, 17 Rhys Carre, 18 Leon Brown, 19 Rhys Davies, 20 Taulupe Faletau, 21 Rhys Webb, 22 Rhys Patchell, 23 Alex Cuthbert


Head To Head

Wales celebrate beating Scotland in the Six Nations on February 12, 2022.© Reuters

Wales have dominated this fixture in recent years, winning 13 of their last 15 Six Nations matches against Scotland, including in both of the last two years to halt early Scotland momentum from an opening-weekend win.

That run includes six wins from the last seven visits to Murrayfield too, most recently a 25-24 triumph in 2021 which saw Wayne Pivac's side come from behind to edge to victory, before going on to win the whole tournament.

Scotland have to go back to 2017 for their last home win over Wales, while their 11 Six Nations home games against Wales in total have yielded just three victories compared to seven for the visitors.


SM words green background

We say: Scotland 18-16 Wales

This promises to be a fascinating contest between a Scotland side packed with talent and buoyed by their win over England against a relatively inexperienced Welsh side looking to get back on their feet under Gatland.

Scotland have so often fallen at the second hurdle in recent years, with Wales their chief tormentors in those times, but this time around we are backing the home side to come out on top by a narrow margin.


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Game History

How you voted: Scotland vs Wales

Scotland
62.5%
Draw
0.0%
Wales
37.5%
24
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Wales head coach Wayne Pivac pictured in October 2020
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